gravatar

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Spread Pick – CFB Week 11

Week 11 of the 2012 College Football Season continues with Wednesday night (8:00pm ET) Mid-American Conference action featuring the Bowling Green Falcons (6-3) traveling to Peden Stadium in Athens, OH to take on the host Ohio Bobcats (8-1). The Falcons are 6-3 ATS this season, and are on a five-game streak of covering the spread, most recently with a 24-3 win over Eastern Michigan on October 27th. Ohio University is 4-5 ATS this season, their win last weekend also over Eastern Michigan by a score of 45-14 as a 16 point favorite, snapped a four game streak of failing to cover against the spread.

The Bowling Green offense ranks 93rd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 23 points per game and 76th in total offense with 383.4 yards per game. The running game, with an average of 169.7 YPG, is the strength of the unit and relies heavily on running back Anthon Samuel (725 yards rushing, 9 TDs) for a large portion of their offensive production. Samuel is questionable for this game with a neck injury after missing the last game against Eastern Michigan. The Falcon defense ranks 9th in the nation in scoring defense with 15.2 PPG allowed and 8th in total defense with 290 YPG allowed.

Overall the Bobcat offense ranks 30th among FBS teams in scoring with 35.6 PPG and 28th in total offense with 462.2 YPG. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton (1,900 yards passing, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 621 yards rushing) is a dual-threat and runs the offense very efficiently. Ohio ranks 37 in the nation in scoring defense with 22.4 PPG allowed and 55th in total defense with 387.4 YPG allowed.

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Bowling Green Falcons +3

@ Ohio Bobcats -3

Game Total:

Over 49 (-110)

Under 49 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Bowling Green vs. Ohio Pick:

Bowling Green has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 November games. The Bobcats have a 5-0 record ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, but are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 MAC games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The under is 5-0 in the Falcon’s last 5 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 conference games and 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. The over is 9-4 in the Bobcats’ last 13 games against winning teams, 10-3 in their last 13 November games and 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game. In head-to-head play, Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bobcats in Ohio and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings overall. Ohio has won three straight in the series, including a 29028 win last season as a 7 point favorite.

The Falcons have one of the best defensive units in the nation, and they have not allowed more than 200 total yards in their last two games. They demolished Miami of Ohio 37-12, a team that handed Ohio U their only loss of the season and piled up 424 yards of total offense on the Bobcats, and held the Redhawks to 256 total yards while doing so. Ohio U put up 29 points and 447 yards of offense in last year’s win over the Falcons, that is unlikely to happen again this time.  If they can hold Tettleton in check they will go a long way towards stopping the Bobcats, as the QB accounted for 322 yards of total offense in their last meeting. The pick here is against the trend in this series, and for Bowling Green to pull off the upset on the road. Take the Falcons and the points in this game.

PICK = Bowling Green +3