The rivalry continues this week as Peyton Manning’s 6-3 Indianapolis Colts face Tom Brady’s 7-2 New England Patriots at Foxboro Stadium. Kickoff is as 4:15 EST and I suggest you get comfy because you won’t want to take your eyes off this one.
The story here is whether Indi can play the same way on the road as they do at home when it matters. They’ve gone 2-3 on the road this year, losing to Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. The problem’s been their defense which has been gashed on the ground. This week might be their lucky week, facing a pass heavy team like the Patriots who don’t represent much of a threat on the ground with BenJarvis Green Ellis at RB. The Colts have also been without Austin Collie and Dallas Clark for the last few weeks, with Clark out for the remainder of the season. Manning has to rely on Jacob Tammie as his TE option. He had some key drops two weeks ago against Philly, drops that Dallas Clark wouldn’t have made. Manning can’t make his receivers catch the ball, and if this game is as close as it should be, the Colts receivers could be the difference.
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New England stormed into Pittsburgh last week and laid a good ol’ fashioned beat down on the Steelers. Coming off a loss at Cleveland, the Pats were in no mood to joke around, and you can bet they had this game in their sights too. They’re in scary form right now, and this week’s rematch of last year’s 36-35 shootout between the Colts and Pats in Lucas Oil Stadium should re kindle one of the greatest rivalries in NFL history.
Colts vs. Patriots Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Indianapolis Colts +4
@ New England Patriots -4
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Patriots vs. Colts Predictions for Week 11 Betting:
Game Total Prediction (Top Play): Regardless of how these two defenses are playing, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are two of the best quarterbacks of all time. They’ve made a living picking apart defenses, especially in big games, and you can bet that this game will be similar to last year’s 71 point affair. Much like last week’s Steelers Patriots game which I predicted would go over the number, don’t worry if the points don’t come early, they will come. As this game goes on Brady and Manning will begin to take over. Sit back and watch the two best in the business go at it. Throw the stats out the window here, the fact is neither defense is playing better than average and both have major holes which can be exposed. I like this game to go well over the number.
Top Play Prediction = Over 50.5
Spread Prediction: The Colts pass rush has been excellent at home this year. Freeney and Mathis are the two most dangerous defensive ends in the game. However it’s no secret they’ve been different players this year away from home. New England got excellent protection against the Steelers DE’s last week which allowed for Brady to stand in the pocket and throw. The Pats game plan has changed since they traded Randy Moss; they’ve gone back to their Super Bowl winning ways of an array of different plays while never focusing on one specific aspect of the offense. Whether its Green Ellis, Kevin Faulk, Wes Welker or either of their tight ends getting the ball, the Pats are back to form. New England are favorites by more than a field goal, but given the way Manning plays as an underdog, I like the Colts to cover the spread. The Steelers racked up a lot of yards last week but couldn’t turn them into points. Peyton will take a lot from that game and figure out the Pats defense. Indi are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog and the underdog is 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Prediction = Colts + 4