It’s been a successful week in this column in Week 14 as we enter Monday night with a 3-1 record. Our only record came last night with the Over in the Pats/Chargers game. There were opportunities for points but a couple of atrocious calls and key turnovers in the red zone cost us that pick. It’s still been a solid week and we’ll look to end it on a winning note with an intriguing Monday night affair with some big playoff implications. The Packers are fresh off a big win against the Patriots while Atlanta just beat the Cardinals and are actively looking to capture the NFC South title despite their mediocre record. It promises to be a good end to the week and your betting needs are covered here at The Sports Geek. Read on below for a full breakdown and our official wager for Monday night.
Falcons vs. Packers Betting Odds:
Atlanta Falcons +13 (-110)
@ Green Bay Packers -13 (-110)
Over 55.5 (-110)
Under 55.5 (-110)
Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv
Check out Kevin on Sports Bettors TV today talking about this game at the 28:45 mark:
Falcons vs. Packers Pick:
With the current form of Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense, there’s zero chance the Atlanta Falcons can limit him tonight. The Falcons boast a brutal defense and even though they’re coming off an impressive outing vs. Arizona, the Packers bring a lot more than Drew Stanton will. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson are all looking to finalize excellent seasons and they should see this game as a true opportunity to add to their already impressive statistics. Atlanta generates virtually no pressure – as is evident by the fewest sacks they’ve generated this year. They also hold the 29th ranked pass defense and the Packers should be able to dominate through the air tonight. As has been the case all year, expect Rodgers to receive ample protection and be able to pick apart the Falcons secondary with ease. There’s no way he’ll be stopped and the Packers will still be motivated as they’d like to secure homefield advantage and they won’t let up on Monday Night Football in front of their hometown fans.
For the Falcons when they’ve got the ball, while they still have a ton of talented offensive weapons, the Packers defense has made huge strides in recent weeks. Green Bay is truly rounding into a championship-calibre team and look for them to show that again tonight. Everybody knows the Packers have an unbelievable offense but it’s the defense that will make or break them. Look for a statement performance from their stop unit tonight. Last week the Packers put all kinds of pressure on Tom Brady and that’ll continue against Matt Ryan. Atlanta has pretty poor pass protection, and look for Green Bay to force Ryan into rushing his throws and mistakes. While Ryan is an elite QB in the Georgia Dome, he’s been pretty brutal away from it throughout his entire career. This year he’s just thrown 8 TD’s and 6 picks away from home. Atlanta could turn to the run game if Ryan struggles, though Steven Jackson likely won’t be all that productive. Green Bay’s defense has held three of the past four opposing running backs to less than 85 yards, and S-Jax is showing some big signs of slowing down.
Thirteen is a large spread and a lot of points, but this situation warrants laying them. This is not a make or break game for Atlanta, but for Green Bay they’ll look to keep the pedal down as they secure homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s going to be cold and that’ll negatively impact an Atlanta team that’s used to a dome. Rodgers in his career is 8-4 ATS with spreads of 12 or higher and he should be able to build on that mark tonight. Look for Green Bay to get out to an early lead and not look back on Monday Night Football.
PICK = Packers -13 (-110)