Week 11 of the 2012 College Football season features exciting Thursday night (7:30pm ET) ACC action with the 10th ranked Florida State Seminoles (8-1) traveling to Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA to take on the host Virginia Tech Hokies (4-5). The Seminoles are 3-5 ATS this season, but have covered two of their last 3 wins including a 48-7 pasting of Duke on October 27th to cover a huge 27 point spread. The Hokies are 2-7 ATS this season, and have failed to cover 4 of their last 5 games including a 30-12 loss at Miami last week as a 1 point favorite. Virginia Tech has won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head meetings with the Seminoles, including a 44-33 win in 2010 as a 4.5 point favorite.
The Florida State offense ranks among the best in the country with quarterback E.J. Manuel (2,315 yards passing, 16 TDs, 4 INTs) coming into his own in his second full year as a starter with a 70% completion rate. FSU ranks 3rd in scoring offense among all FBS teams with 44.8 points per game and 7th in total offense with 524.7 yards per game. The ‘Noles defense is even more highly ranked, coming in at 3rd in the country in scoring defense with 12 PPG allowed and 1st in total defense with 227.1 YPG allowed.
Virginia Tech dual-threat quarterback Logan Thomas (2,109 yards passing, 422 yards rushing, 6 TDs) has regressed from his outstanding season a year ago, and the Hokies offense has suffered as a result ranking 70th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 27.1 PPG and 65th in total offense with 401.4 YPG. The VT defense has not been as strong as in recent years either, but is still respectable, ranking 52nd in scoring defense with 24.7 PPG allowed and 41st in total defense with 367.9 YPG allowed.
Florida State vs. Virginia Tech Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Florida State Seminoles -14
@ Virginia Tech Hokies +14
Over 51.5 (-110)
Under 51.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Florida State vs. Virginia Tech Pick:
Florida State has a 5-0-1 record ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record, and the ‘Noles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their previous game. The Hokies are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 November games, but just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The under is 6-0 in FSU’s last 6 road games, 9-3-1 in their last 13 games overall and 7-0 in their last 7 November games. The under is 17-8-1 in Vignia Tech’s last 26 games on grass, 4-1-1 in their last 6 Thursday games and 19-9-1 in their last 28 games overall. In head-to-head play, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the two teams.
The trend in this series strongly favors the under, and the Hokies are likely to have a hard time with FSU’s tenacious and fast defensive unit. The ‘Noles have struggled in recent years and have not had success against a Virginia Tech team that has traditionally been one of the top teams in the ACC for over a decade, but this year things are much different. The Seminoles are better than the Hokies on both sides of the ball, and as the proved against an upstart Duke team their last time out they are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the ACC. With almost two weeks to prepare for this game the chances of a letdown are low. FSU should dominate on both sides of the ball, VT was handled by a Miami team that the ‘Noles defense was able to hold in check. FSU is the pick to cover on the road.
PICK = Florida State -14