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Florida vs. Florida State Over/under Pick – CFB Week 13

Week 13 of the 2012 college football season continues with another big in-state rivalry game that features two teams in competition for BCS Bowl slots that are looking to put themselves back on the map nationally in an old rivalry that has been given new life. The 4th ranked Florida Gators of the SEC (10-1) travel to Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL to take on the 10th ranked Florida State Seminoles (10-1) of the ACC Saturday afternoon (3:30pm ET). The Gators have a 6-5 record ATS this season, and they have failed to cover in four straight games coming into this one, including a listless 23-0 win over Jacksonville State as a 37.5 point favorite last week. The Seminoles are 3-7 ATS this season, and have failed to cover three of their last four games ATS including a 41-14 win last week over a depleted Maryland squad as a 31.5 point favorite.

The University of Florida offense ranks 80th among BFS teams in scoring with 25.8 points per game and 107th in total offense with 332.9 yards per game. Quarterback Jeff Driskel (1,318 yards passing, 10 TDs, 3 INTs) missed last week’s win against Jacksonville St. with an ankle injury but is expected to play this week against FSU. The Florida defense is a top-10 unit across the board, ranking 3rd among FBS teams in points allowed with 11.7 per game and 4th in total defense with 281 YPG.

Florida State has averaged 42.9 PPG to rank 7th in the nation in scoring offense and 493.6 YPG to rank 14th nationally in total offense Quarterback E.J. Manual (2,785 yards passing, 21 TDs, 6 INTS) has been one of the most improved players in college football, and is nursing a minor ankle injury but will play against Florida. The FSU defense is also a top-10 unit, ranking 5th among FBS teams in scoring defense with 13.1 PPG allowed and 1st in total defense with 236.3 YPG allowed.

Florida vs. Florida State Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Florida Gators +8
@ Florida State Seminoles -8

Game Total:

Over 44.5 (-110)
Under 44.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Florida vs. Florida State Pick:

Florida has a 4-1 record ATS in their last 5 road games, a 3-9 record ATS in their last 12 games against winning teams and an 0-8 record ATS in their last 8 November games. The Seminoles are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 November games. The under is 6-0 in Florida’s last 6 non-conference games, 6-2 in their last 8 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. The under is 11-1 in FSU’s last 12 non-conference games, 7-2 in their last 9 November games and 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against winning teams. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 head-to-head meetings, and 7-1 in their last 8 meetings at FSU. The home team is 13-5 ATS their last 18 meetings, and the favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

If you like intensity and attacking defenses, this will be a great game to watch as two of the best defensive units in the country will be going at it all game long. Florida St. would seem to have the edge with their gaudy offensive numbers, but the Seminoles have put up those numbers against mostly sub-par defenses in the ACC, not an SEC-caliber defense like the Gators. This should be a tight game all the way through, and as is usually the case whoever wins the turnover battle will probably win the game.

PICK = Under 44.5