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Fresno St. vs. Boise St. Pick – CFB Week 8

The Friday night (8:00pm ET) game of the week features a Mountain West battle between the Fresno St. Bulldogs (3-4) and the Boise St. Broncos (4-2) at Bronco Stadium in Boise, ID. Fresno St. is playing a Friday game for the 4th week in a row, and lost 30-27 at UNLV last Friday night to snap a three game winning streak. They had previously defeated Southern Utah (56-16), New Mexico (35-24) and San Diego St. (24-13). Boise St. is coming off of a bye week and beat Nevada 51-46 on the road in a shootout two weeks ago in their last action. Their losses came in week 1 against Ole Miss (35-13) in the Georgia Dome and at Air Force (28-14) in week 5.

The Bulldogs rank 74th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 28.7 points per game and 46th in total offense with 439.4 yards per game. Boise is led by a new head coach in Bryan Harsin who came over from Arkansas St. to replace the departed Chris Petersen. Quarterback Brian Burrell threw for 310 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs last week in one of his better performances this season. Fresno St. ranks a dismal 106th nationally in points allowed with 35.6 per game and 10th in total defense with 469.9 YPG allowed.

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Boise St. ranks 59th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 31.2 PPG and 25th in total offense with 483.8 YPG. QB Grant Hedrick threw for 346 and 2 TDs against Nevada, and has completed 72.1% of his passes and ranks as the second best passing QB in the Mountain West; rebounding from a terrible start that saw him throw 8 INTs in two games earlier this season. He will rely on the running game of Jay Ajayi (152 yards and 3 TDs against Nevada) which ranks 53rd nationally with 182.3 YPG. Boise St. ranks 75th nationally in scoring defense with 27.2 PPG allowed and 52nd in total defense with 374.7 YPG allowed.

Fresno St. vs. Boise St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Fresno St. Bulldogs +17

@Boise St. Broncos -17

Game Total:

Over 61.5 (-110)

Under 61.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.ag

Fresno St. vs. Boise St. Pick:

With the exception of last week’s loss to UNLV, Fresno St. has suffered all of their losses against power conference opponents in starting the season 0-3 with losses at USC (52-13), at Utah (59-27) and at home against Nebraska (55-19). Boise St. has dominated this series, registering a 12-1 record ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Bulldogs. This contrasts with their 3-13 record ATS in their last 16 home games against Mountain West opponents. Fresno St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against Mountain West opponents. The UNDER has come in the last 3 games for Fresno St., and has come in for each of the last two games in Boise between the two teams.

The Broncos have one of the better run defenses in the nation ranking 17th nationally with 109.5 YPG allowed, but one of the worst pass defenses with 265.2 YPG allowed (101st nationally). Fresno St. has averaged only 249.9 YPG passing for the season, and doesn’t appear to be equipped to take advantage of the Broncos’ weak secondary. Both teams have been inconsistent this season, but Boise holds a big edge in the series. If this was a typical, explosive Boise St. team they would be an easy call to cover at home, but that is not the case and while they should win the Broncos are no sure thing to cover. The call here is to play the total, and with Fresno looking unlikely to light up the scoreboard and the trend favoring the UNDER the play here is the UNDER.

PICK– Under 61.5