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Hawaii vs. BYU Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 5

The Friday night (8:00pm ET) game of the week for week 5 of the 2012 college football season features the Hawaii Warriors (1-2) traveling to Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT to take on the BYU Cougars (2-2). Hawaii is 1-1 ATS this season, with the win as a 44.5 point underdog in a 49-10 defeat to USC in their opener, and the loss a 69-24 shellacking in which Nevada easily covered the 7 point line. BYU is 2-2 ATS this season, covering as a 6 point underdog in a 7-6 loss to Boise State last week and a 13.5 point line in a 30-6 win over Washington St. in their opener. They failed to cover 38.5 points in a 45-13 win over Weber St. in week 2, and lost 24-12 to Utah as a 3.5 point favorite in week 3. In the most recent meeting between the two teams last season, BYU won 41-20 at Hawaii to cover an 8 point line.

The Hawaii offense has typically thrown the ball well and ranked among the top passing teams in the country, this season that has not been the case as the Warriors rank 100th among FBS teams in passing offense with 197.3 yards per game, and have not run the ball any better ranking 90th in rushing offense with 139.7 YPG. Somehow the offense does rank a respectable 57th in scoring offense with 29.3 points per game. Defensively the Warriors have allowed 40 PPG, to rank 119th among FBS teams. They rank 71st in total defense with 392.3 YPG.

BYU has also been known throughout the years for their ability to throw the football, but like the Warriors, they have not lived up to that billing this season. BYU ranks a mediocre at best 73rd in the nation in passing offense with 219.2 YPG, and a dismal 91st in scoring offense with 367.5 YPG. On the other hand, the Cougar defense has been stellar ranking 13th in scoring defense with 12.5 PPG allowed and 7th in total defense with 246 YPG allowed.

Hawaii vs. BYU Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Hawaii Warriors +27.5
@ BYU Cougars -27.5

Game Total:

Over 50 (-110)
Under 50 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Hawaii vs. BYU Pick:

Hawaii has gone 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. BYU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The over is 13-5 in Hawaii’s last 18 games on grass, and 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. The under is 8-1 in BYU’s last 9 Friday games and 6-2 in their last 8 home games.

These two teams are both inept on offense, the fact that Hawaii also has the worst scoring defense in the nation means that they have very little chance to win this game. BYU normally would be a good bet to cover even a high spread against a defense this terrible, but with their passing game suspect it is best to stay away from a spread play here. This should be a one-sided game with BYU having a strong defense that is unlikely to be threatened by the Warriors anemic offense. Take the under in this game as the safer play, BYU will muster enough offense to win the game against a woeful Warrior defense and Hawaii will be fortunate if they are able to muster any offense at all.

PICK = Under 50