gravatar

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma Spread Pick – CFB Week 4

The Saturday night (7:50pm ET) game of the week in the Big 12 features the 13th ranked Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) traveling to Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK to take on the 5th ranked Sooners of Oklahoma (2-0). Kansas State is 2-1 ATS this season, and the Wildcats have outscored their opponents 138-43 so far this season with impressive wins over Missouri St. 51-9 in the opener and Miami (FL.) 52-13 in week 2, and a 35-21 win over North Texas last week in which they did not cover the 27 point line. Oklahoma is 1-1 ATS this season, a 24-7 win over UTEP in their opener in which they did not cover the 29.5 point line, and a 69-13 shellacking of Florida A&M in week 2 to cover a 55 point line. The Sooners had a bye last week.

The Kansas St. offense revolves around quarterback Collin Klein (905 total yards, 9 TDs this season) and running back John Hubert (6.9 yards per carry). The Wildcats average 46 points per game (13th among FBS teams) and 454.7 YPG (39th among FBS teams) on the young season. The defense ranks 22nd in scoring with 14.3 PPG allowed and 44th in total defense with 344.3 YPG allowed.

Oklahoma has one of the top signal-callers in the country in senior Landry Jones (474 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT), and an outstanding running back in Damien Williams (12.9 YPC, 5 TDs). The Sooners average 46.5 PPG (11th among FBS teams) and 544.5 YPG (also 11th in the nation). The OU defense has not been tested this season, and has allowed 10 PPG (9th nationally) and 245 YPG (10th nationally).

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Kansas St. Wildcats +14.5
@ Oklahoma Sooners -14.5

Game Total:

Over 57.5 (-110)
Under 57.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma Pick:

Kansas St. is 501 ATS in their last 6 road games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Big 12 games. Oklahoma is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, but 205 ATS in their last 7 Big 12 games. The over is 9-2 in K-State’s last 11 games against winning teams, 42-18 in their last 60 Big 12 games and 37-16 in their last 53 road games. The under is 4-0 in OU’s last 4 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 games against winning teams. In head-to-head play, the road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the over is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. Oklahoma has won the last 5 meetings straight up, including a 58-17 demolition in Manhattan, KS last season.

These two teams are familiar with each other, and most of the key players from last season’s big OU win return. Jones had a field day last year against the Wildcats’ secondary, throwing for a school-record 505 yards. K-State is looking to prove themselves against a program that they have struggled against in the past, but they have the horses to pull it off this season and Oklahoma has weaknesses that they can exploit. Klein had an off game last season against OU, throwing for only 58 yards, but his completion percentage has shot up this year from 57% to 72.3% and his ability to run (1,141 rushing yards last season) makes it tough to devise a game plan to shut him down completely. The spread is high because of the blowout last season, but K-State has improved since last season and even though Oklahoma is dominant at home, the Wildcats should make this game close with an improved Klein. Take Kansas State and the point in this game, two touchdowns should more than enough to make this wager pay off.

PICK = Kansas State +14.5