The SEC Conference Championship game takes place this Saturday afternoon (4:00pm ET) with the number one ranked LSU Tigers (12-0) taking on the 14th ranked Bulldogs of Georgia (10-2) from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. LSU rolled over then-third ranked Arkansas last week by a score of 41-17 at home in a game that they covered the 10.5 point line as I predicted here last week. Georgia comes in red-hot as well; winners of their last ten in a row, including a 31-17 win over in-state rival Georgia Tech last week to cover the 4.5 point line. LSU is 9-3 ATS this season, while Georgia is 8-4 ATS.
The offense for the Tigers has been outstanding, ranking 13th in scoring with 38.2 points per contest this season despite ranking only 61st in the nation in total offense with 387.8 yards per game. The defensive side of the ball is where coach Les Miles’ crew has made their mark this season, ranking in the top ten nationally in: points allowed with 10.6 per game (2nd), rushing yards allowed with 86.1 per game (4th), passing yards allowed with 162.3 per game (6th) and total defense with 248.4 YPG surrendered (2nd). Georgia’s offense under quarterback Aaron Murray ranks 25th in the nation in scoring with 34 PPG and 35th in total offense with 423.7 YPG. The Bulldog defense ranks a strong 10th in the nation with 17.8 PPG allowed and 5th in total defense with 271.2 YPG allowed.
LSU vs. Georgia St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
LSU Tigers -13.5
@ Georgia Bulldogs +13.5
Over 46.5 (-110)
Under 46.5 (-110)
LSU vs. Georgia Pick:
The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The under is 7-3 in the Tigers last 10 games in December. Georgia is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 SEC games. The over is 4-1-1 in LSU’s last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1-1 in their last 6 SEC games. The under is 6-1 in Georgia’s last SEC games and 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. In head-to-head play, the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. LSU snapped a three-game Georgia wining streak in the series last year with a 20-13 win in Athens as a 3.5 point underdog.
The Tigers are a prohibitive favorite in this game based on their dominant defense and the fact that they have taken on and defeated some of the toughest teams in the country in head-to-head play including Alabama (their likely opponent in the BCS National Championship Game regardless of the outcome here) and Oregon. LSU has allowed over 20 points in a game only twice all season long, and Georgia has not allowed 20 points to an opponent since October when Florida scored 20. I like the under in this game in a game that should be closer than most people think with LSU being virtually assured of playing for the National Title already. Take the under here.