Miami (OH) heads into Bowling Green for a big tussle in Mid-American Conference football. With a win, the Redhawks would become bowl-eligible. Perhaps more importantly, Miami would move into a first-place tie atop the MAC East with Temple and Ohio. Miami is coming off of a big 21-9 road victory over MAC rivals Buffalo while the home side Falcons will have some confidence of their own after a surprising 17-14 road victory against Central Michigan. Coming into the game, the Falcons had lost six in a row and were 16-point underdogs. It was a needed shot in the arm. While statistics can sway opinion to favor one thing or one team, there is no denying that Bowling Green is better in November than the rest of the season. Take note: The Falcons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November. While Miami is the clear favorite here (3.5 points) don’t count out the Falcons—especially at home. The overlying theme of the night though will be how the 98th ranked offense (Miami) does against the 98th ranked defense (Bowling Green).
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This is a big game for the Miami (OH) Redhawks. Should they win, they put themselves in prime position for a chance to play for the MAC Championship game. They will have Temple at home in their final regular season game. But, Ohio does hold the tiebreaker courtesy of a 34-13 win over Miami. But, Ohio still travels to Temple and Ken State (a formidable MAC opponent). Either way, Miami has to win this game. They will have a lot of confidence and optimism going into it. A big key to their success against the Falcons will be the play of sophomore quarterback Zac Dysert who is in his second full season as a starter. He’s cut down on his interceptions since last year and he is coming off a game against Buffalo where he threw for 231 yards and two scores. Miami is 32nd in the country in passing yards per game while Bowling Green is 63rd in pass defense. If Miami can get something going on the ground against the Falcons 110th ranked run unit, then Dysert can make them pay through the air.
It’s really been far from a dream season for Bowling Green. The Falcons are 2-7 and before their stunning victory last week at Central Michigan, they had posted only one victory all season. What will last week’s win do for their confidence? While it’s hard to say precisely, it’s a safe bet that it should give them a boost as they take on a Miami team that they beat soundly last season. If there is a place where the Falcons can get something going against Miami it is in the passing game. They rank 51st in the country in that regards. Outside of that, the offense has been anemic. In a low-scoring contest tonight—-like last week—Bowling Green has a chance.
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Miami (OH) -2.5
@ Bowling Green +2.5
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Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Green Prediction for Week 11:
Spread Prediction (Top Play)–While there were certainly a lot of positives to be drawn for the Falcons when they won last week at Central Michigan, it can’t be anything but a mirror. The Falcons simply aren’t very good on offense and if it wasn’t for three Central Michigan turnovers, they probably wouldn’t have won. Now, they take on a capable Miami team that hast a lot to play for from here on out. They could even win their division with a trio of good performances and a touch of luck. With the Redhawks having a lot to play for and a capable quarterback, I can’t see them winning this game by any less than 6 points.
Game Total Prediction– Neither offense is a world-beater and neither defense is very good. But, with the cooler conditions sweeping through the Midwest and Bowling Green’s low-scoring offense we can see a low-scoring affair throughout. While the game won’t be a 45-3 blowout, we do expect Miami to tack on a few points. What we don’t expect is for the Falcons do reciprocate. The Under is 4-0 in Miami’s last four games and that is good enough.