The Tuesday night game for week 10 of the 2010 college football season features the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders (3-4, 1-2 in conference) traveling to Jonesboro, Arkansas (7:00 pm ET) to ASU Stadium to face the Arkansas St. Red Wolves (3-5, 2-1) in Sunbelt Conference play. Arkansas St. is coming off of a 37-16 home victory over Florida International on October 23, while Middle Tennessee St is coming off of a 38-10 pounding of Louisiana-Monroe on the same day.
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Middle Tennessee St is led on offense by running back Phillip Tanner who has averaged 5.4 YPC on the season and has 453 total rushing yards and 6 TDs so far this year. The Blue Raiders are primarily a running team, but when they look to throw senior quarterback Dwight Dasher brings a great deal of experience to the table. Dasher had an outstanding year last season, throwing for 2,789 yards and 23 TDs to go with 14 INTs. So far this season he has not been as sharp, throwing for 564 yards with only 2 TDs and 6 INTs. He does have the capability to throw, and the Red Wolves must be conscious of both facets of the offense.
Arkansas St. loves to put the ball in the air with sophomore quarterback Ryan Aplin, who has thrown for 2,079 yards and 13 TDs and 7 INTs so far on the season with a 60.3% completion percentage. Aplin’s top target is junior Dwayne Frampton, who has 46 receptions for 471 yards and 4 TDs on the year. When the Red Wolves stay on the ground, junior running back Derek Lawson with 310 yards on 77 carries (4.0 YPC) will get the bulk of the action
Middle Tennessee St. is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Arkansas St. is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The under is 5-0 in the Blue Raiders last 5 games overall, and the under is 7-3 in the Red Wolves last 10 November games. The favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Middle Tennessee St. vs. Arkansas St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Middle Tennessee St. -1.5
@ Arkansas ST. +1.5
Over 58.5 (110)
Under 58.5 (110)
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Middle Tennessee St. vs. Arkansas St. Predictions for Betting:
Over/Under Prediction (Top Play) – Take the under here, the trend is your friend and the trend is for the under in the head-to-head meetings between these two teams and in their games as an aggregate. Expect the scoring to be relatively low by college football standards, and possibly somewhat one-sided. Middle Tennessee St. is not an explosive team at all, and Arkansas St. has not blown out anyone so far this season. Expect those trends to continue here and for Arkansas St. to win the contest at home.
Spread Prediction– Arkansas St. has an explosive passing offense and the home filed advantage as an underdog, which has been critical in the series between these two teams. Look for Arkansas St. to have success through the air and to put up their share of points early against the Blue Raider defense. Middle Tennessee St. is ill-equipped to stage a come back if they get down early and that could be the big difference in this one. An explosive passing game is a big key to success in college football these days, and that is what gives Arkansas St. the edge in this matchup.