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Mississippi St. vs. Alabama – CFB Week 12

The SEC game of the week for week 12 of the 2014 college football season features a top 5 match up with major conference and national playoff implications. The #1 ranked Mississippi St. Bulldogs (9-0) travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL to take on the 5th ranked Alabama Crimson TIde (8-1) on Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET). The Bulldogs had a tune up against Tennessee-Martin last week, a 45-16 win, the BUlldogs ascended to the top of the national rankings with wins over notable conference foes Texas A&M (48-31), LSU (34-29) and Auburn (38-23) among others. The Crimson TIde have reeled over 4 straight wins in impressive fashion after a week 6 loss at Ole Miss (23-17). They defeated LSU 20-13 last week, and throttled Texas A&M 59-0 during this impressive run.

Mississippi St. is ranked 11th nationally in scoring offense with an average of 39.8 points per game and 6th among FBS teams in total offense with 522.1 yards per contest. MSU is led by quarterback Dak Prescott, who averages 247.9 passing YPG and 86.6 rushing YPG and has accumulated up 18 TDs through the air and 11 on the ground. The Bulldogs rank 16th nationally in points allowed with 19.7 per game and 88th in total defense 427.2 YPG allowed.

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Alabama is ranked 33rd nationally in scoring offense with an average of 34.7 PPG scored and 19th among FBS teams in total offense with 487.3YPG. The Crimson Tide rank 2nd nationally in points allowed with 13.9 per game and 4th in total defense 275.2 YPG allowed. Their run defense ranks 3rd in the country against the run (89.2 yards per game)

Mississippi St. vs. Alabama Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Mississippi St. Bulldogs +10
@ Alabama Crimson Tide -10

Game Total:
Over 52 (-110)
Under 52 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Mississippi St. vs Alabama Pick

Mississippi St. is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against. a team with a winning record, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 SEC games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Crimson Tide are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in November, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass. The Under is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 SEC games and 18-8-1 in their last 27 games in November. In head-to-head play, the under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Alabama and 12-2-1 in the last 15 meetings between the two teams. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

The key match-up will be the MSU rushing attack led by the dual-threat Prescott against the stout run defense of Alabama. The Bulldogs have exceeded 100 yards rushing in every game and have pushed past 200 yards in 8 of 9 contests, but Alabama has allowed over 100 yards on the ground only 10 times over the past 3 seasons. Their opponents have surpassed 200 yards only once during that span. MSU and Prescott have taken on some of the best teams in the SEC already and emerged unscathed, they do not appear to be getting enough respect from the odds makers in this one. This should be a close game, look for MSU to have success running the ball and hold down Alabama’s offense with a bend but don’t break defense that is strong on third downs and is better than their total defense national ranking. Take MSU and the points here.

PICK= Mississippi St. +10