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Navy vs. San Diego St. – CFB Bowl Game

The 2014 bowl season continues with a Tuesday evening (9:30 pm ET) game featuring the Navy Midshipmen (7-5) and the San Diego St. Aztecs(7-5) of the Mountain West Conference in the Poinsettia Bowl from Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA. The Midshipmen closed the regular season with 3 wins in a row including a hard-fought 17-10 win over Army in their annual rivalry game. The Aztecs won their final two regular season games including a 38-7 win over San Jose St.

Navy is ranked 38th nationally in scoring offense with an average of 33.1 points per game and 43rd among FBS teams in total offense with 431.8 yards per contest. Quarterback Keenan Reynolds leads the Navy triple-option offense with 1,082 rushing yards and 20 TDs along with 749 passing yards and 5 TDs. The Midshipmen rank 79th nationally in points allowed with 28.3 per game and 79th in total defense 410.3 YPG allowed. Linebackers Daniel Gonzales and Jordan Drake have combined for 158 tackles and defensive end Will Anthony has 8 tackles-for-loss for the Middies.

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San Diego St. is ranked 83rd nationally in scoring offense with an average of 25.8 PPG scored and 63rd among FBS teams in total offense with 400.1 YPG. The Aztecs rank 15th nationally in points allowed with 20.1 per game and 27th in total defense 337.6 YPG allowed.

Navy vs. San Diego St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Navy Midshipmen +2.5
@ San Diego St. Aztecs -2.5

Game Total:
Over 54 (-110)
Under 54 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Navy vs San Diego St. Pick

The Midshipmen are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Aztecs are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an outright win. The Under is 9-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 10 games in December, 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass and 29-11 in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. The Under is 11-1 in the Aztecs’ last 12 games overall, 23-7 in their last 30 games following a ATS win and 16-5 in their last 21 games on grass.

Navy is playing in the Poinsettia Bowl for the fourth time since the game was introduced in 2005, but have lost in each of their last two trips including a 35-14 loss to San Diego State in 2010. The Midshipmen have only ten days to prepare for this game after their late end to the regular season in the Army/Navy game on December 13th. San Diego St. owns wins in their last 8 games against military academies, including their win over AIr Force down the stretch this season. The Aztecs are playing in their second Poinsettia Bowl in the last three years and are 6-0 at Qualcomm Stadium this season.

The Aztecs rank 4th in the Mountain West in rushing defense (145.6 YPG), and they are just as tough against the pass. Linebacker Calvin Munson has had an outstanding all around season with 78 tackles, 10.5 tackles-for-loss, 4 sacks, 4 interceptions and 2 forced fumbles. San Diego ST. has an outstanding record against service academies and has been outstanding against the run, a prerequisite for stopping the academies’ triple-option running game. They will be playing in a comfortable environment against a team that has had a short amount of time to prepare. They have the advantage here, and should cover against a fatigued Navy team coming off final exams and flying across the country. Take the Aztecs with less than a field goal spread here.

PICK= San Diego St. -2.5