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New Mexico vs. Arizona St. Pick – CFB September 18th

Week three of the 2015 college football season features a Friday night (10:00 pm ET) matchup with the Lobos of New Mexico (1-1) taking on the Arizona State Sun Devils (1-1) at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, AZ. New Mexico won 66-0 over Mississippi Valley St. at home in week 1, and lost 40-21 to Tulsa at home last week. Arizona St. lost to Texas A&M in week 1 38-17 in Arlington, TX and notched their first win over the season last week against Cal Poly 35-21 also at home.

The Lobos running back Teryon Gipson is one of the main cogs in their option offense, rushing for 71 yards last week, but is questionable for this game with a knee injury. Wide receiver Dameon Gamblin had 8 catches for 131 yards last week against Tulsa, and is a key play-maker in New Mexico’s passing game.

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The Sun Devils rely on running back Demario Richard, who has run for 221 yards this season, and quarterback Mike Bercovici who has thrown for 13 TDs in his first 5 games as a starter. The ASU defense has struggled on defense against the run, allowing 284 yards rushing to Cal Poly last week. New Mexico runs a similar triple-option offense to Cal Poly and they will rely heavily on the run this week. ASU has several key injuries on defense this week including safety Armand Perry, who had 11 tackles in the season opener against Texas A&M, is doubtful with a leg injury.

New Mexico vs. Arizona St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
New Mexico Lobos +27.5
@ Arizona St. Sun Devils -27.5

Game Total:
Over 63.5 (-110)
Under 63.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

New Mexico vs. Arizona St. Pick:

New Mexico is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 September games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The over is 7-2 in the Lobos’ last 9 September games, 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass and 12-4 in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. The over is 5-0 in the Sun Devils’ last 5 Friday games, 6-1 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 13-6 in their last 19 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in the previous game.

The trends against the spread would seem to favor New Mexico and trend against the Sun Devils, and with ASU looking less than stellar through their first two games the line looks a bit high in favor of ASU. The total is a positive trend for both teams, but with ASU under-performing so far this season and New Mexico relying heavily on the run that is not the most advisable play here. The strongest play here is to take the points and New Mexico on the road against an ASU team that should win the game outright, but is not as likely to cover such a hefty spread with an abundance of injuries on defense and facing a run-heavy team that is capable of exploiting their biggest weakness and controlling the clock. The pick here is to take the Lobos and the points.

PICK-New Mexico +27.5