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New Mexico vs. Boise State Pick – NCAAF Week 3

Yikes. We got off to such a hot start, going 7-1 to open the college football season, but then things turned sour. I went through my worst stretch on the football field in a decade of football betting. Even when things were looking good, they ended up turning to coal when the game was final. If anything, I wish could get my Stanford bet. Didn’t go with my instincts that they would be off after a trip to Australia. Those type of losing streaks is what bankroll management is for and it can’t be stressed enough or sports betting isn’t going to a long-term profit machine. Moving on to Week 3 where we begin with the New Mexico Lobos and Boise State Broncos on Thursday night.

Boise State is coming off a heart wrenching loss to the Washington State Cougars last week. They had the game right in front of them, and then they threw it away. Starting quarterback Brett Rypien exited the game with an apparent injury, giving way to backup Montell Cozart who couldn’t protect the ball and game. There hasn’t been any word on what exactly is bothering Rypien. Washington State was down 31-14 early in the 4th quarter, and they fought all the way back to complete the comeback in overtime. There were errors to go around, but Cozart has to be a little more responsible with the football in his hands.

The crucial interception he threw late was a result of a blind pass. Cozart was falling to the turn and tried to flip it to a nearby receiver, but it ended up going directly to a Washington State defender. Mike Leach can send a nice gift package to Cozart for allowing his team to complete the comeback. However, Boise State wasn’t the only team without their starting quarterback. Luke Falk was hammered and went out as well. It may have been a blessing in disguise, because Tyler Hilinkski came in and played better than Falk was when he was healthy.

Hilinkski didn’t look like he came off the bench cold. He was hitting receivers with expert precision, doing it all while he had to lead a big comeback. So, before we go saying that Boise lost because they lost Rypien, Washington State had to contend with losing their starting quarterback as well. Note that Rypien’s status is up in the air, but it would appear that he is not going to be ready to perform in Week 3 against New Mexico. The Lobos will come at Boise with a triple-option offense. Triple-options can be tricky to prepare for, so the Broncos must put that hard loss in the past and move on. Get our free New Mexico vs. Boise State pick below.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Odds:

Spread:
New Mexico +15.5(-110)
vs. Boise State -15.5(-110)

Total:
Over 58.5(-110)
Under 58.5(-110)

Betting odds provided by Bovada.lv

New Mexico vs. Boise State Pick:

New Mexico is coming off hard loss in their own right. They dropped a rivalry game to New Mexico State by a score of 30-28. The offense didn’t get into motion until the 4th quarter. They nearly pulled off a comeback, scoring 24 points in the 4th to pull within 2 points. Lamar Jordan was benched at quarterback, and Teveka Tuioti came in and played well with 2 touchdown passes. It’s uncanny you see a triple-option team throw the ball 38 times. It is almost unheard of, but they were down by a lot and needed to get the passing game going. New Mexico State figured them their option attack out quickly and forced the Lobos to go to their weakness.

Jordan was never able to get on track and threw 2 interceptions. Nevertheless, he is their best athlete on the field and he must be good for New Mexico to have success. He will get the starting nod in this one, and an opportunity to bounce back. The Lobos did an adequate job at stopping the run against New Mexico State, holding their top rusher to 99 yards. However, they got torched against the State air game. Tyler Rogers threw for 4 touchdowns and 401 yards. If Rypien doesn’t start, which it’s looking like, New Mexico will not have to worry about a capable passer.

Montell Cozart is a graduate transfer from Kansas. He played sparingly at Kansas, with his best year resulting in 7 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 2016. This is Kansas, one of the worst FBS schools in the country and he struggled to find playing time in four years there. He does have some mobility to his game. If anything, he can pick up a first down with his legs.

Cozart just has a lot of issues playing well in the pocket, though. 15.5 points is a lot to lay with Cozart. The Broncos also have a tendency to get lost against triple-option teams. Coming off a blow to the gut against Washington State, how motivated are they to prepare for a New Mexico team they see on tape looking bad against New Mexico State? Boise State should get a win tonight, but I don’t expect them to be firing on all cylinders.

PICK: NEW MEXICO +15.5 (-110)

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