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Oklahoma vs. TCU Pick – NCAAF Week 5

This isn’t the season the Oklahoma Sooners envisioned when they set out at the start of the year. Two losses by October 1st? That is not Sooners football. Choking and losing in a critical game in December or January? That is Oklahoma. Despite entering as favorites to make it back to the college football playoff, Oklahoma has basically already been statistically eliminated. The best they can hope for at this point is to win the Big-12. That opportunity is still there, as conference play is just starting to warm up across the country. But with two losses on their resume, they can say goodbye to the playoff. The loss to Houston to open the season was a surprise, losing to Ohio State wasn’t much of a surprise, but the manner in which they lost was. Oklahoma was spanked 45-24 and quarterback Baker Mayfield failed to garner much offense for the Sooners.

Mayfield looked reckless and turned the ball over twice, throwing it right into the teeth of an aggressive Ohio State defense. And with that, Oklahoma was out of the college football playoff hunt, and Mayfield removed himself from Heisman discussions. Additionally, he threw a few dollars into a fire with his poor performances. Mayfield was a hot NFL commodity in his own right, but this has all but damaged his chances at being drafted with a high pick in the draft. I have raised my concerns about quarterbacks from the Big-12 numerous times, and Mayfield is no exception in this regard.

Oklahoma has to regroup and focus on TCU before those two losses turns into a 1-3 start to the year. It’s at this point where you’re going to begin to hear about Bob Stoops and his job on the line. Stoops has escaped unscathed after a few blown critical games, but we haven’t quite Oklahoma play this poorly this early, notably with a talented team. Oklahoma lost some talent to the NFL in the offseason, but they shouldn’t have gotten embarrassed like that at home against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a really good team and it just seemed that they didn’t match up with them physicality wise. Oklahoma will get back to conference competition in Week 5, where they hope a good week of practice will result in difference results on the road at TCU.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:
Oklahoma -3.5(-110)
vs. TCU +3.5(-110)

Total:
Over 69.5(-110)
Under 69.5(-110)

Odds provided by Bovada.lv

Oklahoma vs. TCU Pick:

Mayfield hasn’t looked like a Heisman quarterback, nor has he looked like an NFL quarterback. I have learned that he is fine against poor defenses, but really struggles against teams that throw the house at him. He can sure hit an open receiver, but an elite defense can do a number on him. Luckily for Mayfield and the Sooners, they come back to soft Big-12 defenses. His numbers look good, with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, but Mayfield hasn’t taken a game over thus far. His only good start came against ULM, where he threw 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

TCU enters tonight with a record of 3-1, their only loss coming against Arkansas in overtime. They’ve also beaten San Diego State, Iowa State, and SMU. Iowa State and SMU aren’t the most impressive of victories, but San Diego State has proven to be a bit of a solid team in 2016. Not great by any means, but not a team you can walk through. Texas A&M transfer, Kenny Hill, assumes the starting duties for the Horned Frogs now. Transfer quarterbacks are all over the place these days, and Hill is yet another quality quarterback who went to another school due to quarterback competition. Hill passed for 23 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with the Aggies in 2014, before he sat out last season because of eligibility requirements.

Hill has passed for 1487 yards, rushed for 166 yards, and has a total of 10 touchdowns between the air and ground. He has to be getting exciting looking at the Oklahoma defense, who just was torched by Ohio State for 45 points. TCU provides a similar dual-threat that Ohio State did. The Horned Frogs have a runner and a thrower at quarterback. Hill is capable of doing what T.J. Barrett did. Mayfield should be able to have a big game today, though. I think this is going to be the game we see him go off for a big outing. There should be some points scored in this game, so the OVER looks pretty tempting.

PICK: OVER 69.5 POINTS (-110)