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Ole Miss vs. Alabama Pick – CFB September 19th

Week three of the 2015 college football season features a Saturday night (8:15 pm ET) matchup pitting two top 25 SEC teams in the 15th ranked Ole Miss Rebels (2-0) and the host 2nd ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, AL. Ole Miss went 9-4 last season and concluded their season with a 42-3 loss to TCU in the Peach Bowl. The Rebels upset the Crimson Tide 23-17 in Oxford last season. Alabama had a 12-2 record last season and made it to the inaugural College Football Playoff where they lost to eventual National Champion Ohio St. 42-35 in the semifinals in the Sugar Bowl.

The Rebels opened their 2015 season with 76-3 win over Tennessee-Martin at home and followed that up with 73-21 win over Fresno St. last week, also at home. Quarterback Chad Kelly replaces Bo Wallace under center for the Rebels and he has a multitude of targets to throw to including star wide receiver Laquon Treadwell who looks to be all the way back from a devastating leg injury last season. On defense their front seven is among the best in the nation and has looked dominant against lesser competition through the first two games of the season. They also kept Alabama in check in their meeting last season, and most of that group returns this season.

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The Crimson Tide opened their season with a 35-17 win over Wisconsin at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX and last week they defeated Middle Tennessee 37-10 at home last week. Quarterback Jake Coker has taken over under center for Blake Sims, and wide receivers Robert Foster, ArDarius Stewart and Calvin Ridley have combined to catch 25 balls for 223 yards and are attempting to fill the shoes of departed All-American Amari Cooper.Defensively Alabama has proven they can shut down a strong team, as they did against Wisconsin in their opener.

Ole Miss vs. Alabama Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Ole Miss Rebels +6.5
@ Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5

Game Total:
Over 52.5 (-110)
Under 52.5 (-110)

Betting2odds taken from Bovada.lv

Ole Miss vs. Alabama Pick:

Ole Miss is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 September games, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning home record. Alabama is 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 September games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning road record. The under is 10-1 in the Rebels’ last 11 games on grass, 9-1 in their last 10 SEC games and 9-2 in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Alabama’s last 5 games overall but the under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games against a team with a winning road record. In head-to-head play the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the two teams in Tuscaloosa and 6-1 in their last 7 meetings overall.

The trends against the spread favor the Rebels and seem to point against the Crimson Tide, but the odds of Ole Miss springing an upset for the second year in a row or even keeping the score within a touchdown are 50/50 at best. The play to make here is the total, and with two very strong defenses and two starting quarterbacks who are as yet untested in SEC play the recommendation is to take the under here.

PICK-Under 52.5