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Oregon vs. Michigan St. Pick – CFB September 12th

The second weekend of the 2015 college football season features a marquee Saturday night (8:00 pm ET) matchup with the 7th ranked Oregon Ducks (1-0) of the PAC-12 traveling to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI to take on the 5th ranked Michigan St. Spartans (1-0) of the Big-10 in a highly anticipated rematch of a 2014 week 2 meeting in Eugene won by the Ducks 46-27 on their way to an appearance in the National Championship Game last season. Oregon lost 42-20 to Ohio St. to end a magical run that saw them run the table prior to that game, and featured a Heisman Trophy winning season from quarterback Marcus Mariota. Michigan St. finished with an 11-2 record last season, capped by a 42-41 shootout win over then 4th ranked Baylor in the Cotton Bowl.

The Ducks opened their season last week with a 61-42 win over Eastern Washington led by transfer quarterback Vernon Adams for the first time. The Ducks allowed 438 passing yards in the victory, and Adams left the game early after a late hit to the head but is expected to start this week against the Spartans. Prior to that Adams had thrown for 246 yards and ran for 94 yards in leading Oregon to 731 total yards against his old team. Sophomore running back Royce Freeman ran for 180 yards and 3 TDs.

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The Spartans defeated in-state rival Western Michigan 37-24 last week on the road in Kalamazoo. MSU’s secondary also looked vulnerable last week in allowing 365 yards passing and 2 TDs through the air to Western Michigan’s Zach Terrell. MSU quarterback Connor Cook is a Heisman Trophy contender, and he threw for an ordinary for him 256 yards and 2 TDs last week, but ran his record to a gaudy 24-3 as a starting QB at Michigan St. Cook threw for 343 yards and 2 TDs with 2 INTs in last season’s meeting with the Ducks.

Oregon vs. Michigan St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:
Oregon Ducks+4
@ Michigan St. Spartans -4

Game Total:
Over 65.5 (-110)
Under 65.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Oregon vs. Michigan St. Pick:

Oregon is 11-2 in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against a team with a winning record. The Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games, 6-2-1 in their last 9 non-conference games and 18-7-1 in their last 26 games overall. The over is 7-3 in Oregon’s last 10 non-conference games, 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against Big-10 teams and 30-13-2 in their last 45 September games. The over is 7-0 in MSU’s last 7 non-conference games, 7-3 in their last 10 games against winning teams and 8-3 in their last 11 games on grass.

The trends for both teams strongly point to a high-scoring game, and with two experienced and productive quarterbacks going against two very inexperienced secondaries there is every reason to believe that the game plan for both will feature plenty of passing plays. Adams should be recovered from his injury last week, and his ability to run is a key to directing Oregon’s break-neck speed on offense and adds an element that the Spartans will have trouble defending. Oregon allowed Eastern Washington to throw for over 400 yards last week, and Cook will be facing a secondary that is not as strong as the one that he threw for 343 yards against last year. This should be a very high-scoring game, and the the trend is your friend here. Take the over in this game.

PICK-Over 65.5