Week 13 of the 2012 college football season features a civil war in the state of Oregon featuring two of the top-ranked teams in the PAC-12 with the 5th ranked Oregon Ducks (10-1) traveling to Reser Stadium in Corvallis, OR to take on the 15th ranked Oregon State Beavers (8-2) on Saturday afternoon (3:00pm ET). Oregon is 6-5 ATS this season, and their streak of covering five straight games was broken last week (and correctly predicted by the Sportsgeek) with a 17-14 overtime loss to Stanford as a 18.5 point favorite at game time. Oregon State is 7-3 ATS this season, but the Beavers have only covered in two of their last four games, including a 62-14 demolition of Cal at home last week to easily cover the 15.5 point line.
The Oregon offense had their toughest outing of the year in last week’s loss to Stanford, but the Ducks still rank 2nd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 51.1 points per game and 4th in total offense with 548.3 yards per game. Quarterback Marcus Mariota (2,371 yards passing) and running back Kenjon Barner (1,426 yards rushing) set the pace for Coach Chip Kelly’s fast-paced spread option attack. On defense, Oregon ranks 27th in scoring defense with 21.8 PPG allowed and 49th in total defense with 380.6 YPG allowed.
Oregon State has averaged 29.5 PPG this season to rank 60th among FBS teams in scoring offense and 423.6 YPG to tank 47th in the nation in total offense. The passing game is the strength of the Beavers attack with 303.4 YPG (22nd in the nation) behind the passing of Cody Vaz (1,096 yards passing, 8 TDs) who is questionable for Saturday with an ankle injury. If Vaz cannot play, Sean Mannion (1,904 yards passing, 12 TDs), who threw for 325 yards and 4 TDs against Cal, will start. The OSU defense ranks 21st in scoring defense with 18.6 PPG allowed and 26th in total defense with 345.1 YPG allowed.
Oregon vs. Oregon State Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oregon Ducks -9.5
@ Oregon State Beavers +9.5
Over 65 (-110)
Under 65 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Oregon vs. Oregon State Pick:
Oregon has a 7-1 record ATS in their last 8 road games, a 5-1 record ATS in their last 6 PAC-12 games and a 5-1 record ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Beavers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The over is 4-1 in the Ducks’ last 5 road games, 11-4 in their last 15 games overall and 24-9 in their last 33 PAC-12 games. The over is 5-0 in OSU’s last 5 November games, 4-0 in their last 4 games against winning teams and 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, as well as 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Corvallis. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings, and the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in those last 6 meetings.
The Ducks have dominated the opposition until last week’s upset loss to the Cardinal, and they have owned the Beavers in recent years having won the last four meetings by an average of 19 points. These games have been high scoring affairs, and despite Oregon’s performance last week and the Beavers’ standing as one of the top defensive units in the PAC-12, this should be another barn-burner. OSU can throw the ball with either of their two quarterbacks under center, and Oregon will likely bounce back from last week’s loss against their in-state rivals with a potential BCS bowl berth on the line. Take the over in this one.
PICK = Over 65