The game of the week in the PAC-12 features the second ranked Oregon Ducks (8-0) facing the 17th ranked University of Southern California Trojans (6-2) at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum this Saturday night (7:00pm ET). Oregon is 4-4 ATS this season, but the Ducks are on a roll having covered three straight wins including a 70-14 pasting of Colorado last week as a 47 point favorite. USC is 2-6 ATS this season, and has dropped 3 of their last 4 against the spread including a 39-36 upset loss at Arizona last week as a 5.5 point favorite.
The Oregon offense has again been one of the most explosive in the nation, ranking number 1 among all FBS teams in scoring offense with 53.4 points per game and 7th in total offense with 540.1 yards per game. The play of dual-threat quarterback Marcus Mariota (1,483 yards passing, 18 TDs, 6.6 YPC, 3 TDs rushing) has been a big key to their success, as has the running ability of Kenjon Barner (974 yards rushing, 15 TDs). Defensively the Ducks rank 24th in scoring defense with 19.4 PPG allowed and 36th in total defense with 351.5 YPG allowed.
Overall USC has not had the type of offensive production that they expected from their cast of stars including quarterback Matt Barkely (2,266 yards passing), running back and Penn State transfer Silas Redd (640 yards rushing) and wide receiver Marquise Lee (1,129 yards receiving, 10 TDs); although Lee is having a monster season individually. The Trojans rank 29th in scoring offense with 35 PPG and 36th in total offense with 445.9 YPG. On defense, USC ranks 25th in scoring defense with 19.5 PPG allowed and 47th in total defense with 366 YPG allowed.
Oregon vs. USC Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Oregon Ducks -8
@ USC Trojans +8
Over 70 (-110)
Under 70 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Oregon vs. USC Pick:
Oregon has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 35-16 ATS in their last 51 November games but 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The over is 11-2 in Oregon’s last 13 November games, 22-8 in their last 30 PAC-12 games and 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. The under is 5-0 in USC’s last 5 home games and 5-2 in their last 7 PAC-12 games. In head-to-head play, the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two teams in Los Angeles, and the favorite is 602 ATS in their last 8 meetings overall. Oregon has won 3 of the last 5 meetings outright against USC, but USC won 38-35 last year in Eugene as a 16.5 point underdog.
The Ducks are on a roll offensively with the highest scoring team in the country, but they have faced the lightweights of the PAC-12 to this point and their non-conference schedule does not feature any competitive teams. On the other hand, USC has struggled even in the games that they have won, and lost last week to an Arizona team that Oregon blew out 49-0 in week 4 this season. The Ducks have handled the Trojans in recent years with the exception of last season, including two years ago when they whipped USC 52-32 in LA, and with USC unable to put together a complete game against anyone this season the pick here has to be Oregon.
PICK = Oregon -8