Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – NFL Pick for Week 14

Steelers (11-1) at Bills (9-3)


The Steelers lead the all-time series, 16-10, as the Bills broke a 6-game Pittsburgh winning streak that dated back to 1999. The Steelers have won 10 out of the last 12. Buffalo won 17-10 last season on a 14-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to Tyler Kroft with 8:55 remaining.

Playoff implications abound as the Steelers are tied with Kansas City for first in the AFC while the Bills hold a one-game lead over Miami in the AFC East.

Vs. The Spread

The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the total has gone UNDER in four of Pittsburgh’s last five games. The Steelers are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Buffalo. On the flip side, the total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo’s last five, but the Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. Pittsburgh.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Steelers +1 (+102) +110 O 48 (-110)
Bills -1 (-122) -130 U 48 (-110)

Last week

The Steelers finally suffered their first loss of the season when they fell at home to the Washington Football Team, 23-17, in a 5 p.m. kickoff on Monday afternoon. Pittsburgh gave up 13 points over the last 9:09 of the fourth quarter while Washington’s John Bostic picked off Ben Roethlisberger just before the two minute warning.

The Bills followed the Washington-Pittsburgh game with the scheduled MNF outing as they took down San Francisco, 34-24, in Arizona as COVID-19 implications in Santa Clara forced the game to be moved to the desert. Buffalo scored on six consecutive possessions from the beginning of the second quarter until punting with the game hand midway through the fourth. Josh Allen passed for 375 yards and fired four touchdown passes as Cole Beasley (9-130-1) and Stefan Diggs (10-92) complemented each other perfectly in the passing game.

When the Steelers Have the Ball

Pittsburgh Steelers LogoBen Roethlisberger has had an excellent bounce back season although he has thrown an interception in each of his last three games after no throwing a pick in six of the seven beforehand. The young weapons in the receiving core are mashup problems with rookie Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuester and Dionte Johnson all over 600 yards receiving. Claypool leads the group with eight touchdowns.

The Bills have to come up with ways to pressure Roethlisberger as they are fifth in the NFL in sacks per pass play. A.J. Klein gets a good rush up the middle with Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison providing solid heat from their defensive end positions. Klein has a sack in three of his last four games and he has 3.5 in his last two home games.

When the Bills Have the Ball

Buffalo Bills LogoBills quarterback Josh Allen is in an imperial rhythm right now as he has at least 275 yards and two or more touchdown passes in three of his last four. He faces a Steelers defense that has turned opponents over 23 times while T.J. Watt checks in with 12 of the Steelers’ NFL high 44 sacks. Allen has the weaponry on the perimeter to go at Steelers’ cornerbacks Joe Haden and Steven Nelson. Quarterbacks have a 58 percent completion rate in going after Nelson.

Bills wide receiver Stefan DIggs has an NFL-high nine straight games with at least one catch as he is tied for the NFL lead with 90 catches. Rookie Gabriel Davis is ascending as the Bills’ third receiver as he looks for his third game in a row with 65 or more receiving yards and a touchdown catch. The Steelers allow only 99.1 yards per game – third in the NFL – on the ground as it will be interesting to see if talented Bills running back Devin Singletary can mount any type of running attack at all.

NFL Betting Predictions

Winner: Bills (-1) 24, Steelers 20
Over-Under: Take UNDER 48

The Bets
Buffalo Bills -1
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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.