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San Diego St. vs. Fresno St. Pick – CFB Week 6

The Mountain West Conference action heats up with Friday night (10:00pm ET) action featuring the San Diego State Aztecs (2-2) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3) from Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, CA. San Diego St. defeated UNLV 34-17 last week at home, and has lost at North Carolina (31-27) in week 2 and Oregon St. (28-7) in week 3. Fresno St. won 35-24 at New Mexico last week in a game correctly predicted on this site, and rolled to a 56-16 win against Southern Utah the previous week. Their losses have all come against power conference opponents in USC (52-13 in week 1), Utah (59-27 in week 2) and Nebraska (55-19 in week 3).

The Aztecs rank 82nd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 26.5 points per game and 77th in total offense with 397.3 yards per game. The Aztecs are a running team ranking 51st with 182 YPG, their passing game ranks 81st nationally with 215.3 YPG. Running back Donnell Pumphrey ran for 167 yards and 4 TDs last week against UNLV, and he has big-ply capabilities with a 71 yard TD against the Rebels. The Aztecs rank 38th nationally in scoring defense with 20.8 PPG allowed and 61st in total defense with 383.3 YPG allowed.

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Fresno St. ranks 67th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 30 PPG and 45th in total offense with 454.8 YPG. Quarterback Brian Burrell has taken the reins for the Bulldogs and he has led them to over 1,200 yards of total offense in their last two wins over Southern Utah and New Mexico. Fresno St. ranks 50th among FBS teams in passing offense with 259.2 YPG, but Burrell is only making his 6th career start. The Bulldogs rank 119th nationally in scoring defense with 41.2 PPG allowed and 119th in total defense with 508.2 YPG allowed.

San Diego St. vs. Fresno St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

San Diego St. Aztecs +3

@Fresno St. Bulldogs -3

Game Total:

Over 57.5 (-110)

Under 57.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.ag

San Diego St. vs. Fresno St. Pick:

San Diego St. plays a confusing 3-3-5 defense that gives a quarterback many different looks to deal with, last season they held the Bulldogs quarterback (and future NFL starter) Derek Carr to his lowest output of the season against a conference opponent with 298 yards and only 149 total yards in the first half of a 35-28 FSU win. The Aztecs have some holes in the secondary this year; however as they allowed 346 yards passing last week against UNLV and have had issues with pass interference penalties this season as well. They rank 98th among FBS teams against the pass with 268 YPG allowed. San Diego St. and Fresno St. both have issues stopping the pass, as the Bulldogs rank 104th with 277.8 YPG allowed through the air, but Fresno St. is better equipped to attack that weakness than the Aztecs are.

Fortunately for San Diego St., Fresno St. is also terrible defending the run at 114th nationally with 230.4 YPG allowed. San Diego St. also has by far the better defense, and their ability to hold the experienced Carr in check last year bodes well for their chances against the inexperienced Burrell this season. Look for the Aztecs to control the clock with their running game and Pumphrey, and frustrate Burrell with their unusual defense. The Aztecs are a good bet to pull off an upset here, take San Diego St. and the points.

PICK– San Diego St. +3