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San Jose State vs. Boise State Pick – NCAAF Week 10

The Boise State Broncos threw away any chance they had of getting into the discussions of reaching the college football playoff. The odds were severely stacked against them. Even if they finished with a perfect record, it would have been pretty difficult for them to find a way in. Maybe if they were running the tables, but Boise State was not looking too sharp as an undefeated team. When you’re a team playing a smaller conference, the only hope to get some votes is to blow the competition out in a big way. The Chris Petersen-Kellen Moore Boise teams had that kind of makeup. Bigger schools were scared to play them in fear of losing, but now that sense of fear is gone. The Broncos are a good team, however not the same team others didn’t want to play when Chris Petersen was the head coach. Petersen has since turned Washington into a team others don’t want to play.

The bubble burst for Boise State last week against Wyoming. The loss looks like a horrible one, but Wyoming actually aren’t a bad team this season. It’s a game the Broncos should have won as -14.5 favorites, however the Cowboys are looking at playing in a bowl game this season and have found success. While Boise State is still 7-1 with the loss, their entire body of work has not been the most impressive. They’ve survived a few weeks, and it finally caught up to them last week. The week prior to Wyoming, they beat BYU by a point, 28-27, and then against Colorado State they won 28-23. A play here or there and Boise State loses those games. Against Wyoming they didn’t get the breaks they got against BYU and Colorado State.

Boise State welcomes San Jose State to the smurf turf on Friday night, which would be a horrible loss if the Spartans pull an upset. San Jose State are coming off their biggest win of the season last week, a 30-24 win over UNLV. It doesn’t look like much but it was only their third win of the season. UNLV have been playing adequate football this year so it was an okay win. Their second win came against Nevada, 14-10, and Portland State in Week 2. We’ll see if they come to play against Boise State tonight on the road, a sizable challenge this evening for them.

San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos NCAAF Betting Odds:

Spread:
San Jose State +29.5(-110)
vs. Boise State -29.5(-110)

Total:
Over 57.5(-110)
Under 57.5(-110)

Odds provided by Bovada.lv

San Jose State vs. Boise State Pick

The Boise State has not been throttling opponents. Their defense has been playing well, but the offense has not be putting up the 40-45 points per game a lot of people were expecting from this unit. Quarterback Brett Rypien was looking at a monster year, ala Kellen Moore. While Rypien hasn’t been bad, he has not been accumulating the gaudy numbers that some were expecting from him. He’s thrown for 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 62.6% of completed passes. The Broncos are average 33.6 points per game, which really isn’t good enough considering their competition level. In fact, Wyoming are scoring more per game.

The most surprising thing with Boise this season has been their running game. This is a team who is responsible for Doug Martin and Jay Ajayi. They’ve always had a capable running game with NFL talent in the backfield. The Broncos rank 83rd in the country with 160.8 rushing yards per game. The passing game has been solid, averaging 321.5 yards through the air. Consequently, it isn’t like Rypien hasn’t been finding yardage, but they haven’t been explosive and lighting secondary’s up week after week.

San Jose State are 82nd in the passing game, so the Broncos hold a considerable option with quarterbacks. Kenny Potter has passed for 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, with 141 yards rushing and another 4 touchdowns on the ground. The Spartans have played in competitive games against New Mexico and Utah in losses. They lost 34-17 to Utah but they stayed within striking distance throughout the game. The Broncos should win this one quite easily, with little difficulty. However, that may not be enough to cover this massive spread. A four touchdown win for Boise wouldn’t be enough. Despite a 7-1 record, Boise State has not impressed me in the least. For a team who has been unable to blowout their opponents, 30.5 points looks like an awfully lot.

PICK: SAN JOSE STATE +30.5 (-110)