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TCU vs. Baylor Pick – CFB Week 7

The Big-12 game of the day has to be the late Saturday afternoon (3:30pm ET) meeting between the 9th ranked TCU Horned Frogs (4-0) and the 5th ranked Baylor Bears (5-0) at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX. TCU scored a huge 37-33 upset if then 4th ranked Oklahoma last week at home, an also owns wins over Minnesota (30-7) and SMU (56-0). Baylor held off Texas 28-7 last week on the road, and has also defeated Iowa St. (49-28) on the road in Big-12 play this season.

The Horned Frogs rank 12th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 42.8 points per game and 16th in total offense with 516.3 yards per game. Dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin had a career-high 395 yards of total offense in the win over Oklahoma last week, and has thrown for 1,176 yards with 10 TDs and 2 INTs this season while averaging 5.1 YPC on the ground. TCU ranks 7th nationally in scoring defense with 13.5 PPG allowed and 7th in total defense with 279.3 YPG allowed.

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Baylor ranks #1 nationally in scoring offense with 51 PPG and 2nd in total offense with 590.6 YPG. Quarterback Bryce Petty (1,024 yards passing, 9 TDs, 1 INT) had an uncharacteristically poor game last against Texas, throwing for only 111 yards and connecting on 7 of 22 attempts. Running back Shock Linwood (449 yards rushing, 8 TDs) picked up the slack with 148 yards on the ground. The Bears rank 5th nationally in scoring defense with 12.4 points allowed per game and 4th in total defense with 267.2 YPG allowed.

TCU vs. Baylor Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

TCU Horned Frogs +8

@Baylor Bears -8

Game Total:

Over 68 (-110)

Under 68 (-110)

Betting odds taken from BetOnline.ag

TCU vs. Baylor Pick:

The series dates back to 1899, and is tied 51-51-7 in their 109 previous meetings. TCU has accumulated a 6-12 record in conference play during their first two years in the Big-12, and the Bears have a 12-game home winning streak with their last loss a 49-21 defeat to TCU in October of 2012. Boykin has success in that game throwing for 261 yards and 4 TDs against the Bears in his second career start. Baylor won last season’s meeting at TCU 41-38 with Petty having one of his worst games of the year throwing for 206 yards on 19 of 38 passing with 2 TDs and 1 INT. The line has come down from Baylor -10 earlier in the week, with most of the action coming in in favor of the Horned Frogs.

These are the last two undefeated teams in the Big-12, and this should be a very close, hard fought match-up. These two teams and their players are very familiar with each other and have played each other tough regardless of their records, this game should be even more intense given that supremacy in the Big-12 is on the line. Boykin is the only visiting QB to win at Baylor in the last 4 seasons, with Baylor winning 9 in a row at home prior to their loss to TCU. Petty has a history against TCU as well, and his struggles last week and against the Horned Frogs tilt the scales in favor of TCU here. Boykin looks like the real deal this season in what has been the nation’s most improved offense, and he has had success against Baylor before so he will not be intimidated by going on the road. Take the Horned Frogs and the points here.

PICK– TCU +8