Week 13 of the 2012 college football season, aka “Rivalry week” features an excellent in-state match up for the lone college football game this Thanksgiving. After the turkey and stuffing are put away, Thursday night action (7:30pm ET) action features the Horned Frogs of TCU (6-4) traveling to Darrell K. Royal Stadium in Austin, TX to take on the 16th ranked Texas Longhorns (8-2). TCU is 406 ATS this season, but have only covered in one of their last four games, a 39-38 win over West Virginia in week 10 as a 4 point underdog. Texas is 5-5 ATS, and had gone 4 straight games without covering before their last two games a 31-22 win at Texas Tech as a 6.5 point underdog in week 10, and a 33-7 win over Iowa State in week 11 as a 10.5 point favorite.
The TCU offense ranks 44th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 31.5 points per game and 57th in total offense with 411.5 yards per contest. Quarterback Trevone Boykin (1,540 yards passing, 14 TDs, 8 INTs; 267 yards rushing, 2 TDs) is a dual-threat QB who has been up and down since taking over for suspended starter Casey Pachall in mid-season. Boykin has a shoulder injury but is expected to play against Texas. The TCU defense is again one of the op defenses in the nation, ranking 42nd in the nation in points allowed with 24 per game and 16th in total defense with 326.3 YPG allowed.
Texas has been a much more explosive team on offense this season under quarterback David Ash (2,534 yards passing, 17 TDs, 5 INTs), ranking 13th in scoring offense with 39.6 PPG and 30th in total offense with 457.9 YPG. The Longhorn defense however, has been a disappointment, ranking 74th among FBS teams in scoring defense with 29.1 PGP allowed and 86th in total defense with 429.6YPG allowed. The weak spot has been upfront with a run defense that has allowed 200 YPG rushing to rank 100th among FBS teams.
TCU vs. Texas Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
TCU Horned Frogs +8
@ Texas Longhorns -8
Over 58 (-110)
Under 58 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
TCU vs. Texas Pick:
TCU has a 6-0 record ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week, but they are 206 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week, but 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning road record. The over is 10-3 in TCU’s last 13 November games and 11-1 in their last 12 games following a bye week. The under is 5-0 in the Longhorns’ last 5 November games, 5-2 in their last 7 games following a bye week and 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
The Longhorns are an inconsistent group, especially on defense, but they were razor sharp on offense their last time out against a solid Iowa State team in putting up 609 yards of total offense. TCU has struggled on offense this season with a first-time starter at QB in Boykin, and their running game is nothing special which will make it more difficult for them to take advantage of the Longhorns’ deficiencies in stopping the run. Texas has put up 30 or more points in all but two games this season, and Ash should have confidence going against a tough TCU defense coming off of one of his best game this year. Take the Longhorns in this game.
PICK = Texas -8