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Texas Tech vs. Baylor Pick – CFB October 3rd

Week five of the 2015 college football season has several big games on the schedule, in the Big-12 one of the most anticipated and talked about games features Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) traveling to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX to take on the 5th ranked Baylor Bears (3-0) at 3:30 pm ET in front of a national television audience. This is one of the most talked about games of the week because the total, with two of the most prolific offenses in the nation, hit 90.5 earlier in the week which is the highest total posted since at least 1990 according to a reputable stats and information website. The all-time series is tied at 36-36-1, though the Bears have won the last 4 meetings.

Texas Tech opened their season with wins over Sam Houston St. (59-45) and UTEP (69-20) at home before going on the road and taking down Arkansas 35-24. Last week the Red Raiders suffered their first loss to TCU in a shootout 55-52 at home. The Red Raiders rank 5th nationally in total offense with 594.5 yards per game with most of that coming via the air, also ranking 5th in passing offense with 397.2 YPG. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 11 TDs and run for 5 more so far this season, last season he threw for a Big-12 freshman record 598 yards in the Red Raiders 48-46 home loss to the Bears last season.

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Baylor opened their campaign with a 56-21 win over SMU on the road and Lamar (66-31) and Rice (70-17) at home with a week 3 bye in between. The Bears rank 1st nationally in total offense with an astounding 767 YPG and quarterback Seth Russell has thrown for 995 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs.

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Betting Odds:

Spread:
Texas Tech Red Raiders +17
@Baylor Bears -17

Game Total:
Over 88 (-110)
Under 88 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Texas Tech vs. Baylor Pick:

Texas Tech is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Big-12 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams. The Bears are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against winning teams, 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 Big-12 games and 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall. The over is 13-5 in the Red Raiders last 18 October games, 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and 15-7 in their last 22 Big-12 games. The over is 44-16-2 in Baylor’s last 62 games overall, 29-13-2 in their last 44 conference games and 12-5-2 in their last 19 October games. The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings, and the over is 5-0 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings.

The total, even at these stratospheric levels is a tempting play here given that of the 13 games since 2008 that have been posted that 80 or more, 8 of them have invloed the Red Raiders or the Bears. Baylor has the #1 scoring offense in the nation at 64 points per game, while Texas Tech is 3rd with 53.8 PPG. Texas Tech’s Mahomes is questionable with a knee injury, but the quarterback does not seem to matter much in this series as the two teams have combined for an average of 95.8 points in the last 5 meetings, all of which have gone over the total. The total is obscenely high, but it might actually be too low given the teams involved and their history. Sportsbooks do not want to go out on a limb and post the highest total in recent history, take advantage and bet the over here.

PICK-Over 88