Two of the top teams in the Big-12 meet this Saturday afternoon (3:30pm ET) with the 20th ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1) traveling to Fort Worth, TX to take on the 21st ranked TCU Horned Frogs (5-1). Texas Tech has a 5-1 record ATS this season, bouncing back last week from their lone loss both outright and ATS in week 6 to Oklahoma by a score of 41-20 at home, to defeat West Virginia 49-12 at home as a 3 point underdog and hold Heisman Trophy favorite Geno Smith in check in the process. TCU is 3-3 ATS this season, covering a 6 pint spread in their 49-21 win at Baylor last week to halt a two game skid ATS.
The Red Raiders once again field one of the top offensive units in the nation, ranking 16th among FBS teams in scoring offense with an average of 40.7 points per game and 10th in total offense with 537.3 yards per game. Quarterback Seth Doege (1,891 yards passing 21 TDs, 70.7 % completion rate) erupted for 6 TDs and 499 yards against West Virginia last week in the Red Raiders upset victory. The surprise has been the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 18th nationally in scoring defense with 16.3 PPG allowed and 4th in total defense with 243 YPG allowed.
TCU has had to replace suspended quarterback Casey Pachall with freshman Trevone Boykin (605 yards passing, 6 TDs and a 67.5% completion rate) who had a big day against Baylor last week with 4 TDs and no interceptions. Overall the Horned Frogs rank 43rd nationally in scoring offense with 33.2 PPG and 45th in total offense with 429.3 YPG. TCU has traditionally been a strong defensive team under Head Coach Gary Patterson, and that has continued this season as the Horned Frogs rank in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense (11th) with 14.5 PPG allowed, total defense (15th) with 300.8 YPG allowed and rushing defense (10th) with 95.5 YPG allowed.
Texas Tech vs. TCU Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Texas Tech Red Raiders -1.5
@ TCU Horned Frogs +1.5
Over 54.5 (-110)
Under 54.5 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Texas Tech vs. TCU Pick:
Texas Tech has a 6-2 record ATS in their last 8 road games and a 5-1 record AST in their last 6 games overall. TCU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against winning road teams. The over is 6-2 in Texas Tech’s last 8 road games, 6-2 in their last 8 October games and 8-3 in their last 11 games against winning teams. The over is 4-0 in TCU’s last 4 October games and 8-3 in their last 11 home games.
These two teams are both very strong defensively, but Texas Tech was exposed in their loss to Oklahoma and TCU has managed to keep quality teams such as Baylor last week out of the end zone for the most part. Texas Tech was able to stun West Virginia last week, but they are not as consistent overall as TCU from week-to-week, and this game has all of the makings of a letdown on the road against a quality opponent. Texas Tech has the more explosive offensive unit, but Doege did not fare well when he went up against another top flight defense against Oklahoma throwing 3 interceptions and no touchdowns, and another similar showing in this game will result in another loss for the Red Raiders. The over/under total is a tempting play to take the under with two strong defensive teams, but Texas Tech is a very unpredictable team and Boykin could give them enough trouble to send this game well over the total. It should be a very close game, but TCU at home is a very tough team and they are the pick here as the freshman QB Boykin continues to impress for TCU.
PICK = TCU +1.5