The top game in the Big 12 this week features the 22nd ranked Texas Longhorns (6-2) traveling to Lubbock, TX to take on the 209th ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-2) this Saturday afternoon (3:30pm ET). The Longhorns are 3-5 ATS this season, and they have dropped 4 straight against the spread including a 21-17 squeaker at Kansas last week in a game in which they were favored by 18 points. The Red Raiders are 6-2 ATS this season, and had won 2 straight against the line before a 55-24 blowout loss at Kansas State last week as a 7 point underdog.
The Texas offense has flourished under quarterback David Ash (1,726 yards passing, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) despite a sub-par performance last week against Kansas in which Case McCoy came in to rally the Longhorns to victory in the 4th quarter. For the season, Texas ranks 8th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 41.5 points per game and 37th in total offense with 442.9 yards per game. The Longhorns defense has been a disaster this season, ranking 100th among FBS teams with 32.8 PPG allowed and 99th in total defense with 447.2 YPG allowed.
Texas Tech once again has one of the most productive offensive units in the country, ranking 12th in scoring offense with 40.5 PPG this season and 11th in total offense with 506.9 YPG. Quarterback Seth Doege (2,540 yards passing, 30 TDs, 8 INTs) has been one of the most productive signal callers in the country, and has a number of playmakers to work with including wide receiver Eric Ward (517 yards receiving, 10 TDs). The Red Raiders have also stepped up their play on defense this season, ranking 57th in scoring defense with 25.8 PPG and 12th in total defense with 300 YPG allowed. Their rank in terms of scoring defense obviously suffered a big hit in their blowout loss last week.
Texas vs. Texas Tech Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
Texas Longhorns +6.5
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders -6.5
Over 67 (-110)
Under 67 (-110)
Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv
Texas vs. Texas Tech Pick:
Texas has gone 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall but 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning home record. Texas Tech is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. The over is 5-1 in the Longhorns last 6 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 road games and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. The over is 10-3 in Texas Tech’s last 13 games against with a winning record. In head-to-head play, the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Lubbock and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings overall. The Longhorns have won three straight meetings outright, including last season’s 52-20 win in Austin to cover a 14 point line.
The Longhorns and the Red Raiders are both among the most productive offenses in the country, and both teams should bounce back from weak performances last week with big performances in this game. Doege will be aided by facing a weak Longhorns defense and should have a huge game. Ash will be the starter for the Longhorns, despite being pulled last week at the end of the game in favor of McCoy, and he should bounce back with a strong performance here but it will not be quite enough with the Longhorn defense unable to contain the Red Raider offense and Tech having the edge defensively. The call here is Texas Tech at home to cover in what should be a high-scoring and entertaining game.
PICK = Texas Tech -6.5