The inaugural Conference Championship game for the Pac-12 Conference takes place this Friday night (8:00pm ET) with the UCLA Bruins (6-6) from the South Division taking on the 8th ranked Ducks of Oregon (10-2) from the North Division in Eugene, OR in the last game in the tenure of Bruin Head Coach Rick Neuheisel. The Bruins made it to the conference title game by virtue of USC’s two-year post-season ban. UCLA has lost two of their last three games, including a 50-0 blowout loss to the Trojans last week on the road. Oregon also lost to USC two weeks by a score of 38-35 at home, but they rebounded last week with a 49-21 win at home over their in-state rival Oregon State. UCLA is 4-8 ATS this season, while Oregon is 6-4-2 ATS this year.
The offense for the Bruins has been dreadful where it counts this season, on the scoreboard, ranking 88th in scoring with 23.2 points per game, while ranking a respectable 56th in total offense with 393.1 yards per game. UCLA has been equally bad on the other side of the ball, ranking 88th in points allowed with 30.8 per game, and 84th in total defense with 41.9 YPG surrendered. Oregon has been outstanding on offense this year, ranking in the top 10 nationally in scoring with 45.9 PGP (5th), total offense with 510.6 YPG (6th) and rushing offense with 291 YPG (5th). The Ducks defense has been respectable if not spectacular, ranking 43rd in scoring offense with 23 PPG allowed and 65th in total defense with 395.9 YPG allowed.
UCLA vs. Oregon St. Spread, Line and Betting Odds:
UCLA Bruins +31.5
@ Oregon Ducks -31.5
Over 66 (-110)
Under 66 (-110)
UCLA vs. Oregon Pick:
The Bruins are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record. The under is 38-15-1 in the Bruins last 54 conference games. Oregon is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. The over is 20-5-1 in the Ducks’ last 26 home games and 22-8 in their last 30 conference games. Oregon last lost to the Bruins in 2007, by a score of 16-0 at UCLA in a game in which they were 2 point favorites. Oregon destroyed UCLA 60-13 at home last season in their last meeting, easily covering the 26.5 point spread.
The Bruins are a decided mismatch for an Oregon team that ranks among the most explosive teams in the country on the offensive side of the ball. An unheard of 31.5 point favorite in a conference championship game, the Ducks should win this one easily, but the points are just too many to give anyone even a mediocre team like the Bruins. UCLA will play hard for Neuheisel in his last game, and laying the points is probably not a smart play here. The ability of the Ducks to score is a much safer bet. Take the over here as the trend favors that for Oregon and the Ducks do not have a great record ATS this season. UCLA has nothing at all to lost here and should pull out all the stops to at least acquit themselves well on offense.