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USC vs. UCLA Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 12

The top match up for week 12 of the 2012 college football season in the PAC-12 features the 18th ranked Trojans of Southern California (7-3) taking on their crosstown rivals the 17th ranked UCLA Bruins (8-2) Saturday afternoon (3:05pm ET) at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. USC is 3-7 ATS this season, and has covered in only one of their last three games a 38-17 win at home over Arizona State last week as a 10 point favorite. UCLA is 6-4 ATS this season, and has been and up-and-down team against the spread failing to cover 16.5 points last week in a 44-36 win at Washington State, but the Bruins did wallop Arizona by a score of 66-10 the previous week. The same Arizona team that shocked USC 39-36 in week 9.

The USC offense with all of its star power ranks 27th in the nation in scoring offense with 36.9 points per game and 28th in total offense with 462.9 yards per game. Quarterback Matt Barkley (2,972 yards passing, 33 TDs, 13 INTs), wide receiver Marquise Lee (1,447 yards receiving, 13 TDs) and running back Silas Redd (732 yards rushing) are all putting up big numbers; but Barkley and Redd in particular have not been consistent performers. The Trojan defense ranks 39th in the nation in points allowed with 23.5 per game and 59th in total defense with 390.8 YPG allowed.

UCLA has out-performed their more heralded LA rivals on offense this season, ranking 22nd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 37.7 PPG and 13th in total offense with 496.9 YPG. QB Brett Hundley (2,739 yards passing, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) has been deadly accurate with a 69% completion rate. The Bruin defense ranks 47th in scoring defense with 24.7 PPG allowed and 77th in total defense with 411.1 YPG allowed.

USC vs. UCLA Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

USC Trojans -3.5
@ UCLA Bruins +3.5

Game Total:

Over 66 (-110)
Under 66 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

USC vs. UCLA Pick:

USC has a 36-17 record ATS in their last 53 November games, but the Trojans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. UCLA is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against winning teams, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against winning road teams. The over is 5-2 in USC’s last 7 road games, and the under is 7-2 in their last 9 games on grass. The over is 4-1 in UCLA’s last 5 games overall; while the under is 24-10 in their last 34 home games and 34-16-1 in their last 51 conference games. The Trojans are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two teams and the home team is7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings.

The Trojans and Bruins have both been among the most productive offensive teams in the country this season, and neither team has proven to be consistent on defense; especially the Trojans who have been shredded by the likes of Oregon and Arizona in conference play. UCLA has won shootouts over Arizona State (45-43) and Washington State (44-36) in two of the last three games, and their offense comes into this game on quite a roll having averaged 51 PPG in their last three games. The trend in this series has been low socking games that come in under, but that is because the games have been largely one-sided in favor of USC in recent years. This USC team has underachieved, and UCLA is much more competitive than they have been. This game should be another PAC-12 shootout, take the over here.

PICK = Over 66