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Virginia Tech vs. Miami (FL.) Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 10

The top Thursday night (7:30pm ET) game for week 10 of the 2012 college football season features an ACC match up with the Virginia Tech Hokies (4-4) traveling to Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL to take on the host Miami Hurricanes (4-4). Both teams last played on October 20, when the Hokies lost 38-17 at Clemson as a 7.5 point underdog and Miami lost at home to Florida State 33-20 as a 21 point underdog to cover. Virginia Tech is 2-6 ATS this season, while the Hurricanes are 5-2 ATS this year.

The Virginia Tech offense has struggled this season with returning starter Logan Thomas (1,910 yards passing, 13 TDs, 10 INTs) not living up to the hype and suffering from an inability to hang on to the football. The Hokies rank 62nd among FBS teams in scoring offense with 29 points per game and 63rd in total offense with 399 yards per contest. On defense Virginia Tech has been adequate, but far from spectacular, ranking 49th in scoring defense with 24 PPG and 51st in total defense with 370.5 YPG.

Miami has had an up-and-down season from their strong-armed junior quarterback Stephen Morris (2,214 yards passing, 10 TDs, 7 INTs), who threw for 5 TDs and 566 yards in a 44-37 win over NC State to close out September, but has disappeared since with only 1 TD and 3 INTs in the last 3 games, all losses. The Hurricanes rank 72nd in scoring offense with 26.9 PPG and 57th in total offense with 415.1 YPG. The Hurricane defense has been nothing short of atrocious, ranking 98th in scoring defense with 32.4 PPG allowed and 120th in total defense with 499.8 YPG allowed. They have not been able to stop the run at all, ranking 20th with 249.9 YPG allowed on the ground.

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Virginia Tech Hokies -1.5
@ Miami Hurricanes +1.5

Game Total:

Over 57 (-110)
Under 57 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Virginia Tech vs. Miami Pick:

Virginia Tech has gone 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 ACC games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Hurricanes have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 ACC games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. The under is 16-2 in the Hokies last 16 Thursday games, 5-2 in their last 7 ACC games and 5-2 in their last 7 games following a bye week. The under is 6-2 in Miami’s last 8 games on grass, 28-10-1 in their last 39 games in November and 11-5 in their last 16 Thursday games. In head-to-head play, the under is 4-0 in the last 4 games in Miami and 7-2 in their last 9 meetings overall. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and the road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

The Hokies are in the midst of a down season to be sure, and Miami looked to be a resurgent team before their recent three game skid which has come against admittedly tough completion in Notre Dame (8-0), North Carolina (6-3) and Florida State (8-1). Miami appears to be in prime position for a bounce back in this game, but with both teams so inconsistent it is hard to pick either against the spread here. The trend in the series and with both teams individually, favors the under. Neither of these teams has been able to generate consistent production on offense this season, and that should lead to a relatively low-scoring game here. Take the under to get the action started in week 10.

PICK = Under 57