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Washington vs. California Over/Under Pick – CFB Week 10

The Friday night (9:00pm ET) game of the week for week 10 of the 2012 college football season features a pair of under-achieving PAC-12 teams with the Washington Huskies (4-4) traveling to AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA to take on the host California Golden Bears (3-6). Washington is 4-4 ATS this season, while Cal is 3-6 ATS this year. The Huskies won their game at Oregon State last week 20-17 as a 3 point underdog, and have won two of their last three ATS. The Golden Bears have lost two straight ATS, a 49-27 loss at Utah last week as a 1.5 point underdog, and a 21-3 loss the previous week to rival Stanford as a 1 point underdog.

The Washington offense has been one of the least productive units in the nation, ranking 105th among FBS teams in scoring offense with 20.6 points per game and 108th in total offense with 322.2 yards per game. Quarterback Keith Price has been prone to turning the ball over, with 9 interceptions to go with 8 touchdowns and 1,530 yards passing this season. The Huskies’ defense has performed adequately, ranking 68th in scoring defense with 28 PPG allowed and 59th in total defense with 386 YPG allowed. Their strong suit has been pass defense, as they rank 32nd in the nation with 210.2 YPG allowed through the air.

California has had a mediocre performance on both sides of the ball this season; on offense the Bears rank 81st in scoring offense with 25.8 PPG and 65th in total offense with 397.3 YPG. Quarterback Zach Maynard (2,041 yards passing, 12 TDs, 9 INTs) and wide receiver Keenan Allen (739 yards receiving, 7 TDs) have been the mainstays for the Bears. On defense, Cal ranks 69th in scoring defense with 28.3 PPG allowed and 80th in total defense with 416.8 YPG allowed.

Washington vs. California Spread, Line and Betting Odds:

Spread:

Washington Huskies +4.5
@ California Golden Bears -4.5

Game Total:

Over 52.5 (-110)
Under 52.5 (-110)

Betting odds taken from Bovada.lv

Washington vs. California Pick:

Washington has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against losing teams and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. The over is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 games against losing teams. The under is 7-1 in Cal’s last 8 home games, 11-4 in their last 15 PAC-12 games and 13-5 in their last 18 games overall. In head-to-head play, the Huskies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the two teams, and the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings at Cal. In their last meeting in Seattle in 2011, the Huskies won 31-23 to cover a 1 point spread.

The Huskies and Golden Bears are two decidedly average teams on both sides of the ball, and neither team has proven to be capable of generating consistent offensive production. Washington has not scored over 21 points in their last 5 games, and the only time this season they went over that number was against Portland State. Cal has been a very inconsistent group, having beaten UCLA and played Ohio State tough, and losing to the likes of Nevada and Arizona St. That makes this game almost impossible to pick against the spread with any degree of confidence. The trend favors the under in this game, Cal has gone under the total in 4 of their last 6 games and this series has been a low-scoring one with the last 3 games coming in under the total. Take the under here in what should be a low-scoring game.

PICK = Under 52.5