Houston Roughnecks vs Dallas Renegades XFL Pick – March 1

Alright, the regular season is rolling right along for the XFL.

We still have one undefeated team, the Houston Roughnecks, and we have one squad that has yet to secure a victory, the Tampa Bay Vipers.

We took the Roughnecks to cover the 5.5 point spread last week and they came through for us. I almost picked the Renegades as well to cover what I think was 4.5 points and we should have taken them as well because they covered also.

We took the St Louis Battlehawks to cover 10, yes 10 points at home and with the help of the special teams, they cruised to the win. One blocked punt and a reverse on a kickoff return for a score later and the Battlehawks were well in control.

Missing out on the 3-teamer parlay that pays around 6 to 1 kinda hurt but going 2-0 with nearly even odds isn’t the end of the world either.

  • We won our NASCAR winner bet for each of the first two weeks of the season.
  • We are 21-6 over the past few weeks betting on the UFC and Saturday we went 8-1.
  • Golf has been a struggle for us over the past few weeks but we are working hard to bring those numbers up.

I really believe, though, that the online sportsbooks are behind the sharps still when it comes to handicapping and betting on these XFL games. They GAVE the undefeated Roughnecks 1.5 points against the Renegades.

That line has since moved to 2.5 in the other direction of Dallas as underdogs now but that’s still pretty hot and tempting.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us this week. Let’s get to our predictions for the XFL Roughnecks vs the Renegades.

Point Spread

HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS -2.5
-115
DALLAS RENEGADES +2.5
-105

I was wrong last week about former Virginia Tech Hokie and current Houston Roughneck wide receiver Cam Phillips not playing.

I read that the team would likely be without his services in week 3 but luckily I still made the pick for them to cover because they did and Phillips played.

Well, he didn’t just play. The man had a day!

8 receptions for nearly 200 yards including an 84-yard touchdown catch! That adds to his league-leading total of 7 receiving touchdowns on the season.

The LA Wildcat’s Nelson Spruce is tied with Cam at #1 in the XFL with 20 receptions this season but 5 fewer scores have Phillips as the clear #1 performing wideout in the league.

Quarterback play has been more consistent and also spectacular at times for the ‘Necks.

The word is that former NFL star Andrew Luck, son of XFL league president Oliver Luck, told his dad to sign quarterback PJ Walker as he used to backup Andrew in Indianapolis.

Walker had another solid-solid week under center for the Roughnecks last week throwing for over 300 yards on 24-36 for an average yards per attempt of 8.5 and 3 scores.

Through the first three weeks of the season, PJ has easily been the MVP of the league. His numbers completely dwarf the statistics of any other player at his position in the XFL.

But what about Cardale Jones? Even without his bad game last week throwing several interceptions, Jones’s offensive production hasn’t been on par with what PJ has been able to do.

Walker leads the XFL in passing yards with 748 and touchdowns with 10 while only throwing one interception. The next closest QB is the Seattle Dragons’ Brandon Silvers with 6.

The Battlehawks’ Ta’amu has been pretty efficient completing 75% of his pass attempts and the new starter for the LA Wildcats, Josh Johnson, is off to a solid start in 2 games played with 5 touchdowns and zero picks.

How bout them Cowboys…ehem I mean Renegades, though? They’re a pretty good team.

I would currently put them tied for 4th in the power rankings alongside the resurgent LA Wildcats.

Houston #1 then the Defenders as I believe they will bounce back after taking last week off followed at the #3 St Louis Battlehawks.

We are still learning quite a bit. This is a home game for the Landry Jones-led Dallas Renegades but these two metropolises are barely 200 miles apart.

I’m counting on a few fans traveling as well as the home Renegade crowd being lackluster because, well, Dallas has the worst fans in sports. Okay, maybe I just hate the Cowboys.

If I’m being technical, it’s Philly who has the best/worst fans in football. I digress.

Can the Dallas Renegades led by former Big Ben backup Landry Jones hand the Houston Roughnecks their first loss of the young XFL season? Sure, I think they can but I don’t believe they will.

Roughneck linebackers LaTroy Lewis and Carl Bradford each have two sacks in the three games played this year and I expect both of them to terrorize Renegade QB Jones.

I do see Houston winning the game and I would say I’m about 80% on that. The 1.5 points may not be worth it, though.

I like the Roughnecks to win by a touchdown but with the way the clock stops on late drives and the 2 and 3 point conversions, I think we should maybe go with the moneyline.

Moneyline

HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS
-130
DALLAS RENEGADES
+110

I think this is where it’s at. (-130) is not that much more expensive than (-115).

The Roughnecks have had the most opportunistic defense in the league in this inaugural season. The ‘Necks also have the #1 performing quarterback and wide receiver combo in the league, BY FAR. Cam Phillips belongs in the NFL but it’s pretty cool to see him dominating much like he did in college.

PJ Walker looks like he could be a very good option for several NFL teams under center as well. Until then, though, I think we have to back the Houston Roughnecks whenever we get the opportunity.

That Dallas defense, though! They have only allowed 15 points per game which is #1 in the league.

The Renegades have been great on the ball this year. They lead the league in passing yards and total yards but are at a (-3) in turnover differential while the ‘Necks are at (+3).

If Dallas wants to keep it close, I believe they will need to run the ball with consistency. Both squads are fairly weak against the rush giving up 115 and 116 yards per game, respectively.

Both teams can air it out but which team will be able to find balance and thus less likely to throw a second half interception and/or get sacked/fumble the ball?

PJ Walker’s elusiveness and ability to pick up first downs with his legs is the biggest difference here.

I like Landry Jones. He can move and has shown to be a smart scrambler but Walker’s diverse game should keep the Dallas defense guessing.

My Pick
Houston Roughnecks

In Conclusion

This game should be a lot of fun. The battle of Texas!

These two quarterbacks may be the top two guys in the league. We are still learning more about Cardale Jones after his week to forget a few days ago as well as former Redskin Josh Johnson’s impact out in LA.

I was a little surprised to see the Dallas Renegades as favorites when this line opened but they didn’t stay there for very long.

The 1.5 points the Roughnecks would have to cover is not much and even though I believe they likely will, (-130) for a moneyline bet isn’t too expensive for me.

We are rolling along well with our picks this season at 4-1. I think we can keep it moving in week 4 as well.

There are a couple of other games I am thinking about picking as well. Get those bets in now as these lines always shift dramatically right before kickoff.

Tune in and turn up, team!

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Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.