If this weekend taught us anything, it is that there are no sure-things this year in college hoops. We knew there was parity this season. The beginning of conference play has shown us just how close the gap between 10-60 truly is this season. Perhaps that should be expanded to read “Number One through Seventy Five.”
Don’t believe me? Kentucky needed three overtimes to dispatch Ole Miss and Texas A&M, ranked 56th and 55th respectively in the RPI. Duke got handled by NC State, ranked 32nd , Arizona fell to another lowly-ranked foe in Oregon State, ranked 93rd.
That’s the tourney equivalent of three number one seeds losing in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Factor in the chaos in the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12 and SEC and try and tell me there won’t be some double-digit seeds playing in the second weekend of the 2015 NCAA Tournament?
Despite all the choppy waters, we are still sailing with a strong winning and profitable record, it’s just a little tougher to find the advantageous lines this season because there are SO many teams you just never know what you are going to get from one night to the next.
Let’s look for calm waters tonight with my favorite pick on the board.
Today’s Free Pick:
Butler Bulldogs at Seton Hall Pirates -2.5 (Total: 126.5)
I get it. Big East teams win at home and lose on the road. Just look at the results; Seton Hall beats Villanova, then gets smoked on the road by Xavier… who then goes on the road and gets beat by DePaul… who goes on the road and loses to Villanova. You can play the same game with St. John’s, Creighton, Providence, Georgetown, and Butler. It’s chaos.
But things should make sense after tonight. Seton Hall wins this game at home and I’d be stunned if they didn’t. They are 8-0 at home. They are 8-0 ATS at home. Butler has some really good wins but has played a little above their talent level all season long (I know, stop me when that sounds unfamiliar). They very well may ride it to a surprising NCAA Tourney bid, but I’m not picking them on the road.
It is questionable whether Isaiah Whitehead will return tonight from his five-game absence, but either way I like the Pirates tonight at home to get the win. They are 3-1 in conference play without him against a tough slate. They should beat Butler at home and 2.5 is a pretty slim price to pay to back the 12th ranked RPI team in the country at home.