Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins NFL Pick – Week 4

The NFL is set up with another great slate of football in Week 4. Fourteen games will be up on the board throughout October 3. One of these matchups will be between the Indianapolis Colts and the Miami Dolphins. These two teams have been struggling early in the season and will look for a big win in this one. This game will kick off at around 1:00 PM Eastern time.

Indianapolis has earned a record of 0-3 throughout this season, which has them sitting in last place of the AFC South. The Colts are coming off a tough loss against the Tennessee Titans. Nyheim Hines had a rushing touchdown, but it was not nearly enough. Ryan Tannehill had three touchdown passes as the Titans coasted to a 25-16 win.

The Dolphins have put up a record of 1-2 so far this season, which has them in second place of the AFC East. Miami met up with the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4. The Dolphins got a late touchdown run from Jacoby Brissett to send it to overtime. Daniel Carlson hit two field goals in the extra period to help keep Las Vegas perfect with a 31-28 win.

These two teams have not been great so far this season, but will look to get going in this one. Miami is missing Tua Tagovailoa after dropping the last two games. The Colts have had a tough schedule to open up this season and will look to bounce back in this one. If either team can grab an early lead in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Colts vs. Dolphins Live Odds and Betting History

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Money Line Totals
Indianapolis Colts +1 ½ (-103) +113 Over 42 ½ (-110)
Miami Dolphins -1 ½ (-117) -133 Under 42 ½ (-110)

 

Betting Data Indianapolis Colts Miami Dolphins
2021 Record 0-3 1-2
2021 Home 0-2 0-1
2021 Away 0-1 1-1
2021 ATS 1-2 2-1
2021 ATS Home 1-1 0-1
2021 ATS Away 0-1 2-0
2021 O/U 1-2 1-2
2021 O/U Home 1-1 0-1
2021 O/U Away 0-1 1-1

Colts vs. Dolphins NFL Game Preview

The last time these two teams squared off was in Week 10 of the 2019 season. Brian Hoyer had a touchdown pass for the Colts, but it was not enough. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a touchdown run, while Jason Sanders made four field goals on the afternoon. The Dolphins were able to hold on late for a 16-12 win on the road.

These two teams have met up 75 times throughout their histories. Miami has earned a record of 48-27 throughout those matchups. The Colts have won six of their last eight games against the Dolphins though. Indianapolis and Miami both look quite different from the 2019 season and will look to gain the edge early in this one.

Miami will have ex-Colts Quarterback Jacoby Brissett start under center this week with Tua Tagovailoa still out for them. Indianapolis now has Carson Wentz starting at QB this season and will look to earn him his first win. Both defenses are solid, but will look to prove something with a much needed win here in Week 4 of the season.

Opening Odds and Line Movement

The spread for this game opened up at -2 ½ in favor of the Miami Dolphins. This line has shifted a bit, dropping down to -1 ½ for the Dolphins.

The over/ under for this matchup kicked off at 45 ½ points. This has since dropped down to -42 ½ points. This drop makes sense as both teams have some uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball.

The spread dropping closer to even makes sense for me. Miami had a solid performance in Week 3, but the Colts have been tough to read this season. If Indianapolis can put it together, I think they can win their first game of the season on Sunday.

Head to Head Betting Trends

  • Colts are 6-4 SU in last 10 games
  • Dolphins are 6-4 ATS in last 10 games
  • Over/ under is 5-5 in last 10 matchups
  • Over is 3-2 in last five games in Miami

Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends

  • 18-18 SU in last 36 games
  • 18-17-1 ATS in last 36 games
  • 2-12 SU in last 14 games as an underdog
  • 5-8-1 ATS in last 14 games as an underdog
  • 7-11 SU in last 18 road games
  • 9-8-1 ATS in last 18 road games
  • 12-14 SU in last 26 games against Conference
  • 11-15 ATS in last 26 games against Conference
  • 5-1 SU in last six October games
  • 3-3 ATS in last six October games
  • 2-3 SU after two or more losses
  • 2-2-1 ATS after two or more losses

Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • 16-19 SU in last 35 games
  • 22-13 ATS in last 35 games
  • 5-2 SU in last seven games when favored
  • 4-3 ATS in last seven games when favored
  • 8-9 SU in last 17 home games
  • 11-6 ATS in last 17 home games
  • 12-15 SU in last 27 Conference games
  • 17-10 ATS in last 27 Conference games
  • 2-4 SU in last six October games
  • 5-1 ATS in last six October games
  • 4-5 SU after two or more losses
  • 7-2 ATS after two or more losses

Free Bet and Game Prediction: Indianapolis Colts +113

These two teams have not had ideal starts to the new season and will look for a big win in Week 4. Indianapolis has not been able to get much going on the offensive side, but I expect them to switch things up in this one. If the Colts can come out strong on the road, I think they can outperform Miami’s injured offense for the win.

Carson Wentz has had a solid start to his tenure with the Colts. Wentz has thrown for 692 yards, three touchdowns and an interception in his three starts. Indianapolis will need Wentz to get more going through the air in this one. Jacoby Brissett has taken over for the Dolphins after Tua went down. Brissett has thrown for 384 yards and an interception in his two games played.

These two teams do not look all that impressive right now, which makes Indianapolis a bit more tempting as underdogs. The Colts are coming off three straight tough opponents and I think they can bounce back here in Week 4. If Indianapolis can control the passing game early, I think that Wentz can knock off this Dolphins for his first win of the season.

The Bet
Indianapolis Colts
+113

Colts vs. Dolphins Betting Recap:

  • Oddmaker: BetOnline
  • Money Lines: Indianapolis Colts (+113) at Miami Dolphins (-133)
  • Spread: Dolphins -1 ½ (-117)
  • Over/Under: 42 ½ Points
  • Prediction: Colts 21 – Dolphins 17
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Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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