Dayton vs. VCU Pick NCAA Basketball – January 27th

Things were looking good for another college basketball winner last night, but despite Trevon Blueitt’s game for the ages, becoming the first player in three years in college basketball to score 40 or more points on 15 or less shots, the Muskies couldn’t keep Cincinnati off the boards.  The offensive rebounds were too much to overcome as UC stormed back to capture the unofficial city crown.

If you missed the game, it was one of the better and more intense games I’ve seen this season, you really missed out.

Friday’s are usually pretty dead days in college hoops, but the A10 is swooping in to the rescue tonight with a really fantastic matchup between Dayton and VCU.  Both are all but certain NCAA Tournament teams but neither is in line for a seed of any note, making today’s game really, really important for both teams.

Let’s dive in to the marquee game on the slate tonight.

Today’s Free Pick:

Dayton Flyers at VCU Rams -4

Both teams have had good seasons, but when you are a mid-major with few opportunities for a marquee win, every questionable loss becomes magnified; BOTH have one in their last five games.  Dayton got beat by 12 at UMass.  VCU lost back to back games to Davidson and FORDHAM.  Not good.

SO as stated above, today’s game is really, really, really BIG for both teams.  Who has the edge?

VCU has two obvious advantages tonight.  First, they are playing at home, where they are 8-4 ATS this season and perfect in conference play.  Dayton is just 2-4-1 ATS on the road.  The second advantage is that VCU shoots 50.3% from the floor at home while Dayton shoots just 43% on the road.  At the end of the day, most college basketball games comes down to two things; knocking down shots and getting on the offensive glass.  VCU has a huge edge in shooting and has a decent edge in rebounding rate as well.

It tells me in game between two teams with similar profiles overall that the HOME team shoots better AND rebounds better.  I’ll take those advantages just about every single time I am presented with the opportunity.

This line opened as a great value of -2.5.  It has since moved to VCU -4 at around 7am this morning.  If it gets too much further, I’d consider pulling back as this should be a competitive game, but at -4, I am still all in on the VCU Rams at home.

Free Pick:  VCU Rams -4

Chris Scheeren / Author