Edwin Soto vs Jonathan Gonzales Boxing PIck and Betting Analysis

This Saturday October 16tj, 2021 at Chukchansi Park in California, Soto defends his WBO Junior Flyweight Title against 24-3-1 Johnathan Gonzalez. Soto’s fourth title defense may prove to be his greatest challenge to date, with Gonzalez racking up more career knockouts than any of the previous challengers. 

We’re taking a  close look at the odds, stats and past fight outcomes to decide on our most lucrative bet for this title fight. 

Elwin Soto vs Jonathan Gonzalez Odds and Props:

Fighter Money lines and payout per dollar  Over/Under 8 1/2
Elwin Soto -900, $0.11 O   -115, $0.87
Jonathan Gonzalez +550, $5.50 U    -115, $0.87

Soto is a weak favorite for a champion. In fact he’s the weakest favorite of any defending champion this weekend. Gonzalez has a five times your money payout, which may be enough to take a risk on the #20  junior flyweight in the world. 

The over/under prop is a split even at the 8 ½ rounds mark. You’ll find that the majority of TKO’s shared between the two fighters take place between rounds four and ten. Soto will have some highlight reel knockouts in the first and second round on occasion, but never against a boxer on Gonzalez level. 

Other Prop Bets Available for Elwin Soto vs Jonathan Gonzalez

Prop Bet Odds
Fight Goes to Decision -115
Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision -240
Soto Decision Win  +225
Gonzalez By Decision +975

Oddsmakers are unsure of a knockout or decision in this highly competitive contest. So much so that Soto taking home a decision is an underdog call. These odds are all over the place.

Elwin has never been TKO’d in his career, so Gonzalez fans may find the Gonzalez by decision prop bet a good move. I think Soto by decision is more likely, though it’s a bet I’ll steer away from. 

Tale of the Tape for Elwin Soto vs Jonathan Gonzalez

Elwin Soto Jonathan Gonzalez
Age 24 30
Height 5’3’’ 5’2’’
Reach 64’’ 62’’
Total Fights 20 28
Record 19-1 24-3-1
Knockouts 13 14
Stance Orthodox  Southpaw
Career

rounds

102 151
Inactivity  161 Days 148 Days 
Normal 

Weight class

Light Flyweight Light Flyweight

Elwin has a height, reach and youth advantage while Gonzalez has the experience advantage and fight southpaw. Soto has one less knockout while sporting a far better finishing percentage, which you’ll see largely has to do with a much lower quality of opponent overall. 

Elwin Soto Record, Style, and Strategy 

Elwin has defended his WBO title three times after winning it off of Angel Acosta in 2019, offering the former champ his second loss. Until 2019, Elwin was still fighting people who were there to beef up his record, facing off against two opponents with losing records and one boxer making his pro debut in 2018. 

Soto’s one loss came very early in his career in 2017 via Daniel Andujo in a four round fight. He’s been mostly untouched in his last five fights, with two TKOs, one in the first round over 10-4-3 Javier Rendon. 

Elwin is yet to fight another top ten Junior Flyweight fighter, and it’s because he’s not ready yet. His decision win over Edward Heno proved that. Heno is currently out of the world rankings, but may have been considered inside the top 20. Elwin barely made it out with the decision. His performance against Heno is driving his low favorite status this weekend. 

I’d be lying if I said he looked confident. See for yourself.

His title victory over Acosta was stopped early. Soto is still looking for opponents that are tough but not too tough. Elwin wants to see fighters that are tough but can be knocked out. His handlers have found that fall guy in Jonathon Gonzalez. 

Jonathan Gonzalez Record, Style, and Strategy

Jonathan is no stranger to fighting for titles. He lost via 7th round TKO to Kosei Tanaka for the WBO Super Flyweight title in August of 2019. He still holds the NABO Flyweight Title and has defended it four times. He also has won the NABA Super Flyweight Title though he had to vacate it. In 2017, he lost a fight for the WBO Latino Fly Title against Giovani Segura via fourth round TKO. 

He must be used to the pressure by now. I think that Elwin still has plenty to live up to, and for a young man that can be taxing. A crafty veteran can use that to his advantage. 

Gonzales has dished out two TKOs in the last five fights over three years. He’s a volume puncher, like most flyweights capable of knockouts. He hasn’t fought anyone with a losing record since 2017, and his losses have all been to champions with 0, 2, and 3 defeats. 

It’s my belief that Elwin is a more powerful striker, but Gonzalez is the better boxer. 

How do Elwin Soto and Jonathan Gonzalez Styles Match Up?

Gonzales prefers to strike and exit the pocket rather than exchange. He uses quick footwork to repeatedly land punches and move off angle. If pushed, he’ll tie up every time, with no desire to fight off the ropes. This can be predictable and advantaged by the right fighters. 

Elwin moves quickly, and has a snappy right hand that’s turned the tide in many fights. He leaps in with a left hook that closes distance well. He’s unafraid to club fighters with a left hook that changes their footwork and hand position. Takayama is the kind of footwork centered fighter that Gonzalez is similar to. Elwin knocked him off his foot position early and landed significant shots the entire fight. 

My Final Pick for Elwin Soto vs Jonathan Gonzalez

Elwin Soto’s power is a major factor. I see a world where Gonzalez ekes out a decision utilizing the jab in a stick and move strategy. That’s only if he fights a perfect fight. Nine times out of ten, Soto is walking away from this with the WBO title defense number four. If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze fights, start here.

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Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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