Last night’s results didn’t pan out as the Blues and Sharks failed to get much going on offense, combining for just three goals as the action last night certainly skewed towards GPPs.
We got three goals between Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom to get our night started on the right foot, and goaltender Ilya Samsonov turned aside all 24 shots he faced for his first shutout of the season. That said, it would mostly all downhill from there.
Vince Dunn and Jordan Kyrou produced only a combined five shots and a block while an Erik Karlsson assist was the only point we got from our three-man Sharks stack. Evander Kane and Logan Couture somehow managed to combine for two shots on goal in a wildly disappointing result from that duo.
A promising start to the night fell apart in the night caps, so we’ll look to get back on track with some GPP-aimed picks on this seven-game Saturday night main slate!
FanDuel NHL DFS Picks – March 27, 2021
C – Logan Couture (SJ) – $6,600 vs. ARI
The results were so good last night that I’m coming crawling back for more. Just kidding, of course, but this matchup tonight would presumably be even better for the Sharks in the second half of the back-to-back with the Coyotes.
Arizona was already on their third-string netminder Adin Hill for last night’s contest, and with both Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta not yet ready to return to action, the situation dire for Arizona between the pipes. It’s either Hill on back-to-back nights or fourth-stringer Ivan Prosvetov.
Prosvetov has played eight games with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners this season, working to a 3.24 GAA and .906 Sv% in that time. He split last season between the ECHL’s Rapid City Rush and the Roadrunners, posting a 2.88 GAA and .909 Sv% in the latter. As a 22-year-old former second-rounder from 2018, Prosvetov’s future may be bright, but it certainly doesn’t appear he’s ready for NHL duty as this point.
That’s especially true for a Coyotes defense that ranks 26th in scoring chances against/60, 25th in high-danger chances against/60 and 26th again in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 this season, according to Natural Stat Trick.
For his part, Couture has notched 14 goals and 23 points in 32 games on the season to go along with 78 shots on goal. He’s the No. 1 center at 5v5 and on the Sharks’ top power play unit, and while both groups have been slightly below average this season, it would appear this is a fine matchup to target in the rematch tonight.
C – Sean Monahan (CGY) – $5,700 vs. WPG
Like the Sharks/Coyotes matchup, the Sharks and Flames get together for their second game in as many nights tonight after Winnipeg snatched a 3-2 win in last night’s tilt.
Although the Flames are scuffling of late and aren’t exactly filling the net, I like the fact we get backup Laurent Brossoit going for Winnipeg tongiht — a team that gives up more scoring chances than any team in the NHL this season.
Brossoit hasn’t played poorly by any means as he brings a 2.43 GAA and .920 Sv% into action across eight starts, numbers that are superior to Hellebuyck. But I think we can all agree he’s not on the reigning Vezina Trophy winners level while the Jets rank 30th in scoring chances against/60, dead last in high-danger chances against/60 and 30th again in expected goals against/60 on the season. Their 2.26 actual goals against/60 at 5v5 is below their 2.56 expected mark, so they’re due to regress and it’s likelier to happen with Brossoit in goal.
Monahan’s season continues to largely disappoint with seven goals and 21 points in 33 games to go along with 73 shots on goal. He’s probably due to score more with a 9.6% shooting rate that’s below his 14.6% career mark, and he remains the No. 1 center, but this time alongside Elias Lindholm as well.
Mikael Backlund is having a nice year as the team’s No. 2 center once again these days, but with Monahan on the top line and top power play unit, he’s my pick to get back on track in this one tonight.
W – Evander Kane (SJ) – $7,700 vs. ARI
We get Kane at $100 cheaper after he was held to a lone shot on goal in last night’s 5-2 loss in Arizona, which is just fine given the high floor and high ceiling he brings to the table.
Even after last night’s subpar effort, the power forward still has 14 goals and 29 points in 32 games to go along with a whopping 106 shots on goal to boot. Kane has been a high-volume shooter for essentially his entire career, and his 106 shots this season ranks him 18th in the league while the 29 points checks in at a share of 35th.
Kane has been a seriously consistent producer this season, going back-to-back games without a point on just three occasions. Of course, that bodes well for this one tonight after last night’s scoreless effort while he still has three points over his last three games.
Not much thought behind this one other than to get a super-high ceiling into this lineup to form a stack with Couture at 5v5 and on the Sharks’ top power-play unit.
W – Johnny Gaudreau (CGY) – $7,200 vs. WPG
Next man up in our three-man Flames stack is Gaudreau who will, of course, flank Monahan on the Flames’ top line and top power play unit once again in this one tonight.
His production has slowed after a hot start to the season, but he still has 13 goals and 25 points in 35 games on the season to go along with 70 shots on goal. He seemed primed for monster season after recording nine points in seven January gamers and 20 points over the first 22 games of his season, but five points in 13 March contests has certainly diminished his overall season-long numbers.
With just one point — a goal — over his last five games, it’s time he gets back on the board. In fact, Gaudreau has just two goals for his only two points over his last nine games.
The slump was going to happen — at least a goal-scoring one — as he still sports an 18.6% shooting rate that is well above his 12.4% career mark. Still, he worked to an 8.6% mark last season, so he was certainly due for increased puck luck here in 2021.
I simply want to the get the team’s best offensive players into this lineup tonight and while Lindholm and Tkachuk are quality offensive players, I’ll turn to the Flames’ original core to get the job tonight as desperation should set in for a Flames team desperately needing two points in this one tonight.
D – Erik Karlsson (SJ) – $4,400 vs. ARI
Coming off a real nice night that delivered plenty of value, I’m going right back to Karlsson who should certainly produce more in the second-half of the season than he did in the first.
His assist last night was actually of the short-handed variety while he also put two shots on goal and blocked another two for a real nice 16.4 FanDuel point total, his biggest in two weeks. Of course, such a night would be ho-hum Karlsson a few years back, but considering his struggles — not to mention his price tag — that’s an acceptable night from the veteran Swede this season.
While his price is suppressed due to the fact that he’s posted just two goals and 11 points in 29 games with 53 shots and 38 blocked shots, Karlsson is still averaging 23:45 of ice time per game on the season and is getting power-play reps on the top unit alongside Kane and Couture. Of course, the superior cash play is the high floor Brent Burns brings to the table, but Karlsson is the more cost-efficient GPP look to be sure.
Let’s see if the veteran can build off last night’s work in an even better matchup tonight.
D – Mark Giordano (CGY) – $5,900 vs. WPG
Noah Hanifin was thrust into PP1 duties when Darryl Sutter took over behind the Flames’ bench a couple weeks ago, but now it’s Giordano back on that unit and to be honest, it’s the right move.
Maybe his offensive game isn’t quite what it was even when he was the Norris Trophy just two years ago, but this guy’s cross-category production makes him an elite play on this slate considering he matchup.
For the season, Giordano has recorded five goals and 15 points in 35 games, but he’s also pepped 79 shots on goal and added another 66 blocked shots to his credit as well. That’s not the 17 goals and 74 points he recorded across 78 games in his 2019 Norris Trophy season, but the peripherals are very much there and so is the matchup.
In addition to the poor 5v5 stats the Jets have put forth this season, they also sport a sub-80% penalty kill and sit tied for 14th in that category. Of course, not the worst ranking, but anything under 80% isn’t ideal in this league.
The Flames’ power play has scuffled of late, but Sutter is hoping Giordano’s insertion onto that blueline cures what has been ailing that group in his return to the Flames’ bench.
UTIL – Roope Hintz (DAL) – $5,500 vs. FLA
Keep an eye on Hintz’s status as we approach lock tonight as he is once again a game-time decision with a lower-body ailment he’s been fighting for about a month now. He’s managed to skate in four of the last five games, however, so it’s certainly more likely he plays than not, but it’s definitely something worth monitoring.
When in the lineup, he’s the team’s best offensive player. He’s notched 10 goals and 21 points in 21 games on the season to go along with 46 shots on goal. He does boast a big 21.7% shooting rate that is probably doing to drop towards his 14.3% mark moving forward, but there’s no doubt he’s the team’s offensive leader with 11 power play points on the season for a Stars man advantage that sits tied for 10th at 23.8% for the season.
Now, the Panthers have been a far better defensive team than expected entering the season at 2.79 goals against per game, good for 15th in the league. They’re advanced metric are actually even better.
However, that’s exactly why I’m grabbing some Stars exposure here. After all, the Panthers are giving the starting nod to Sergei Bobrovsky who has been — by far — the worse of their two netminders this season with Chris Driedger greatly out-playing his teammate.
Bobrovsky owns a shaky 2.92 GAA and .902 Sv% across 19 starts this season, a year after working to a 3.23 GAA and .900 Sv% in his first season with the Panthers last year.
Add it up and I think the Stars are looking like a sneaky-good look tonight, at least the players we have in this lineup.
UTIL – Jason Robertson (DAL) – $4,300 vs. FLA
Completing our Stars mini-stack here is Robertson who has been a major pleasant surprise for the team this season.
The rookie has made his mark by recording five goals and 20 points in 25 games on the season to go along with 51 shots on goal. The 2017 second-rounder certainly wasn’t expected to be a major offensive contributor this season, but he has formed some chemistry of late with Hintz on the Stars’ top line and has recorded a goal and seven points over his last six games with 20 shots on goal over that time.
Not only is Robertson lining up on the top line with Hintz, but he’s also getting top-unit power-play reps alongside Hintz as well. Two of those seven points over his last six games have come via power-play assists.
Let’s see what this cost-efficient, red-hot mini-stack can accomplish in this one tonight.
G – Anton Khudobin (DAL) – $7,400 vs. FLA
Completing our lineup tonight is Stars netminder Anton Khudobin who has turned in some fine work of late and should be had at lower ownership in a tough matchup with the Panthers.
For the season, Khudobin has worked to a 2.45 GAA and .910 Sv% in 17 outings, but is also just 6-9-2 in that time. That said, he’s posted a .928 Sv% with a shutout over his last two games, but still has just one win to his credit as Hintz and Robertson have pretty much done the only offensive damage of late for Dallas.
The Panthers rank ninth in overall offense and seventh on the power play, but keep in mind the Stars rank seventh in goals against per game, but also second in scoring chances against/60, first in high-danger chances against/60 and second once again in expected goals against/60 at 5v5 this season. Their penalty kill has scuffled on the whole, but their 5v5 defense has been a top-two group alongside the Avalanche this season.
The Stars are the -127 moneyline favorite in this matchup tonight and they certainly have the goaltending advantage, so let’s see if the cost-efficient Khudobin can have himself a big night tonight at low ownership