Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards -1
Here’s a situation you don’t encounter very often; if you want to wager on the Wizards, you have to lay points for the privilege of doing so… there mere notion of laying points on the Wizards conjures up an image of JaVale McGee running the wrong direction on the court. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
But let’s dig into the numbers a bit and see if there is some justification for laying the point and taking the home Wizards tonight in Washington.
Well, for starters, the Wizards are just 5-14 at home this season. So that doesn’t instill me with any confidence. They are a dismal 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games, and are just 12-24 ATS for the entire season. This is a team that even with the generosity of a substantial amount of points most nights still can’t make a reasonable game out of it. In their last home game they did sneak a 101-98 victory out against Cleveland, but prior to that they had dropped six of seven, and by an average of over 12 points per contest.
Golden State is a team with excellent perimeter talent, but in the deep and talented West, they can’t seem to nose their way into the playoff picture. Steph Curry is listed as ‘questionable’ for tonight’s game, but everything I have read and heard indicates he is likely to suit up for tonight’s contest. The Warriors enter losers of five of seven, but have played all but one of those games on the road, and all but two against playoff-likely opponents. Tonight should be viewed eagerly as an opportunity to finally square off against an opponent they ‘should’ beat.
The Warriors are 6-8 against the East this season, but nearly every one of those games have come against playoff teams (including their surprising win over Miami). Perhaps more importantly, they are 8-8 ATS on the road, while Washington is just 6-13 ATS at home. It is a pretty good indication that the perceived ‘advantage’ garnered from the home court is not as great as Vegas usually infers it to be for the hapless Wizards.
All of which brings me back to my original point; how can one comfortably lay points AND bet on the Wizards in the same transaction? I’m not sure either, and I know I’m not going to. Gimme David Lee, Monte Ellis and the Warriors getting a win on the road.
Free Pick: Golden State Warriors +1