Mavericks Thunder Spread and Over/Under Pick

These Conference Finals are starting to get real interesting. Both road teams were able to even up the series at 1-1 in Game Two, setting the stage for a paid of enormous pivotal Game Threes this weekend.

In a scheduling oddity, the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls will enjoy their third day of rest, while Dallas and Oklahoma City lace them up again tonight. So without further adieu, let’s move on to today’s breakdown and free pick.

Today’s Free NBA Picks:

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder -3 (Total: 202)

Lost in the fuss over Russell Westbrook’s “benching” in the fourth quarter of Game Two (Coach Scotty Brooks left the entire second unit plus Kevin Durant in for the entire quarter to capitalize on their hot play – a far cry from “benching” Westbrook…) was the fact that the Thunder made some key adjustments and actually did a reasonable job corralling Dirk Nowitski. Today, they will attempt to do the same thing in their home arena and grab the advantage in this series.

Predicting a Game Three between a veteran team on the road and a young, talented team at home is a very difficult thing. However, what is a little less difficult, is the see the obvious trend that is emerging in this series – the whistles are generous, and the players aren’t making the adjustment. That leads to a lot of free throws.

Both teams are also very offensively gifted, and have a ton of firepower, particularly if Dallas’s JJ Barrea continues to run amuck coming off the bench and scoring in bunches. The OVER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games between these two teams, including going OVER with ease in the first two games of this series. Vegas has adjusted slightly, raising the total from 199, to 200.5 and now all the way up to 202.

It still may not be enough. Neither team has had any difficulty reaching the 100-point mark in this series, making 202 a pretty reasonable total to eclipse for a third straight game tonight.

You can roll the dice with the young Thunder playing well at home tonight; that would be my preference if picking a team tonight, but my official play is the statistically more certain one; the OVER 202.

PICK: Total OVER 202

Bet on tonight’s NBA game along with the Preakness Stakes at

Also check out our computer based betting system that is 16-7 over the past few days (includes underdogs) at …. The system is 2-0 in NBA conference final plays and we have a system play going on this game tonight!

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Chris Scheeren / Author