#14 Belmont Bruins vs. #3 Georgetown Hoyas -3
In my almost-humble opinion, this is the most ridiculous “sheep following the herd” terrible line of the opening weekend. I’m not going to say with a straight face that I don’t launch a few long-shot upset picks out there in my bracket each year. Consider it “Ricky Bobby’ing” my pool. If you ain’t first, your last, right? (If you don’t get the Talladega Nights reference, honestly I fear for your well being..). Ok, back to the point; You pick chalk, life is boring. I took a few flyers, and didn’t hit em all so far this year. It happens when you get a little adventurous with your bracket. But this massive flocking of bettors to the Belmont Bruin window is a little beyond anything I can find numbers or evidence for being anything other than a very bad idea.
So, let’s dig into some of those aforementioned numbers and let me lead some converts back to the Hoyas…
First off, let’s start with the elephant in the room, the glaring lack of competition that Belmont has faced this season. Yes, they enter with an impressive 14-game win streak and have won 16 of 17. But rather than making me doubt my pick, it more makes my case. They went 16-1 over their last 17 games and never once faced a team in the TOP 100 in the country. Not one. Not one even close. So subtract those 17 games from their gaudy 27-7 record and you are left with a team that went just 11-6 in the beginning of their season. They were just 7-5 preconference against Division I competition. Their best win was against Middle Tennessee State. They also lost to Middle Tennessee State, as well as Miami (OH) and Marshall.
Most of the reputation for Belmont is based on their opening game of the season, a very entertaining and competitive loss at Cameron Indoor against the mighty Duke Blue Devils. It was Duke’s very first game of the season. Cincinnati lost to Presbyterian that same night.
Four days later, Memphis beat the hell out of Belmont.
Look, I’m, not saying this isn’t a dangerous low-major team, but to only be getting three points against Georgetown is crazy. Georgetown’s guards are HUGE and athletic compared to Belmont, and G’Town can shoot well enough to prevent a team from simply zoning them effectively. If Belmont chooses to go man, expect Henry Sims to look like the future NBA Draft pick he is becoming.
Georgetown is a double-OT loss away from Cincinnati in the Big East Tourney from possibly being the trendy pick du juor heading into the Dance. I feel as confident about this pick as any I’ve made in a while (which is my ONLY nervous feeling about the game, ironically…).
Lay the three. Take the Hoyas.
Free Pick: Georgetown Hoyas -3 (Click to sign up and get $100 free bet)