We are down to five weeks to go in the college basketball regular season and there is still a ton to be decided. ESPN.com has less than 12 teams considered “locks” for the Big Dance, and while I’d lean a little closer to 20 as locked (I’d lean towards teams like Ohio State, Baylor, VCU, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Iowa State, Maryland, and Utah being IN solidly – because how are 30 teams all going to pass them by??)
But the point is, there is a lot of shuffling and uncertainty remaining and it should be a fun month. It’s was not a fun week for me personally, I got rocked last week with my worst picks week of the season. It is part of the nature of the beast, you ride the ups and downs over a long season, but I am definitely anxious to put last week in the past and earn back some losses.
It’s not a huge slate tonight, but there are a pair of good Big Twelve games as well as Duke trying to avoid a let-down trap game at Florida State, who historically has played them well in Tallahassee. Let’s dive in with today’s free pick and start a fresh new week with a win.
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Today’s Free Pick:
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears -6.5
I mentioned the Bears in the intro as a NCAA lock, and for good reason. The Bears are 18-5 with an RPI of 12. Even if they were to stagger down the stretch, it’s hard to see them falling out of the Bracket. They have been dominant at home and struggled on the road in conference, as appears to be the norm this season. They are 13-1 at home, and since that is where they are tonight, there is reason to be optimistic for Bears fans.
Oklahoma State is much the same story – great at home and lousy away from it. They are fresh off an nice overtime win in Austin, but lost their last four road games and failed to cover in any of them. Add in the inevitable let-down factor after the huge win over Kansas this weekend in Stillwater and it is easy to see the Bears jumping all over them tonight.
Baylor is 9-4-1 ATS at home this season. Spanning the last two years Okie State is just 6-19-1 ATS away from Gallagher Iba Arena. I like Baylor matchup wise, and I love the trends. Six and a half or seven is a fairly steep laydown for two good teams, but over the last five games OK St. has an even point differential while Baylor is plus 12.8.
I like the Bears to Sic’ em good tonight and win and cover at home.