The UFC 273 fight card is headlined by Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie, two of the grittiest featherweights in the game. Our betting pick focuses on the odds and stats, taking a look at the style of both fighters to determine a winner. April 9th, 2022, place your bets by 11:55 PM ET for Alexander Volkanovski or Chan Sung Jung, The Korean Zombie.
Our UFC 273 Main Event Betting Pick
Volkanovski is at the pinnacle of his career and abilities, while Jung has lost to each of his toughest tests. His last three years of activity prove that he’s a fantastic gatekeeper with real striking power, but fighters inside the current featherweight top five best him at every turn. Expect some close submission attempts similar to the Ortega fight, but a rallying decision victory from Volkanovski.
UFC 273 Tale of the Tape for Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie
|Fighter||Alexander ‘The Great’ Volkanovski||Chan Sung Jung ‘Korean Zombie’|
|Reach/Stance||71’’ Switch||72’’ Orthodox|
|Submissions/TKO in UFC||0/3||2/4|
|Fighter Training Camp||UFC Performance Center, Freestyle MMA, Varied||Fight Ready MMA|
|Strikes Landed/ Absorbed per Minute||6.4/3.4||4/3.8|
Volk gives up an inch of reach and height, as well as a finishing percentage advantage. Volkanovski is more about scoring and winning rounds than he is looking for the finish. He’s a smart fighter, and has outpointed much lankier opponents, such as the 5’11’’ Max Holloway. Zombie’s UFC knockout finishes have all been in the first round, and that seems a doubtful outcome against Volkanovski. It’s surely something Jung can’t rely on.
UFC Stats for Volkanovski vs Jung UFC 273 Betting Pick
The UFC also has Alexander listed as an orthodox fighter, but this isn’t true. He’s a switch fighter, and regularly shift steps to southpaw, similar to Ortega, who outboxed Jung with ease in a 2:1 striking clinic.
From the open stance, Volkanovski grabs Ortega's lead hand, feints a right hand, then shifts into southpaw and throws a 3-2 pic.twitter.com/RcXOjr8ti5
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) April 7, 2022
This is one example of one such switch, all too common in the Volkanovski style, and frustrating for the more traditional boxing of Jung.
Note the high differential of strikes landed to absorbed by Volkanovski. Jung will likely land plenty of shots, but the pressure fighter will catch him with counter shots and force losing exchanges. Both fighters have a high takedown defense, and I don’t see any groundwork happening until the late rounds.
UFC 273 Betting Odds and Prop Bets for Volkanovski vs Jung
|Bet Available at Bovada||Odds|
|Volkanovski Money Line||-800|
|Chan Sung Jung Money Line||+500|
|Over 3 ½ Rounds||-185|
|Under 3 ½ Rounds||+140|
|Over 1 ½ Rounds||-550|
|Under 1 ½ Rounds||+350|
|Jung by Submission or Volkanovski by Points||-155|
|Alexander to Score a Knockdown||EVEN|
|Volkanovski by Majority Decision||+550|
|Volk by Points||-145|
|Jung by KO||+800|
|Jung by Submission||+1400|
|Volkanovski Inside the Distance||+155|
|Jung Inside the Distance||+700|
|Winning Round 5||+1600|
This is a selection of all the available bets, including only those we see as favorable or possible for betting picks. Volkanovski hasn’t scored a knockout since Mendes in 2018. His focus on winning five rounds fights has turned him into a shoe-in for a decision bet. The prop Jung by Sub or Volkanovski by Points at -155 is one of the strongest picks on the whole card. I do believe Volkanovski will win, but one of my only concerns is a submission. Jung said he saw weaknesses in Alexander’s BJJ in the Ortega fight, and he may be coming specifically to capitalize on those weaknesses.
We also like the Over 1 ½ Rounds prop. Volkanovski survives early barrages, and Jung shouldn’t be swinging for the fences with five rounds lined up. Both fighters have late fight losses (though Volkanovski only has one) so we’re thinking that Jung will go into the championship rounds as he did with Ortega, Yair and Aldo.
The Winning Round 5 implies that one fighter or another will win after the fifth bell but before a decision victory. Jung has lost in the fourth and fifth rounds by TKO before. Volkanovski picks up hsi grappling in the late rounds, indicating we could see late fight submission work as well. For all the long shot bets, that one is particularly enticing.
Top UFC 273 Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie Prop Bet Picks
- Jung by Submission or Volkanovski by Points -115 for an accurate look at both fighters goals
- Over 1 ½ Rounds -550 for the safest bet next to a Volkanovski win
- Winning in Round 5 for an interesting longshot prop that reflects Zombie’s losses to various strikers like Aldo and Yair.
MMA Breakdown for Volkanovski vs Jung, UFC 273 Betting Analysis
When we’re looking at the striking of Dan Ige and Ortega, we see two fighters with a 3.9 to 4.15 strikes per minute ratio. Volkanovski earns 6.4 strikes landed per minute. This difference in striking volume will make the fight.
Jung vs Rodriguez Fight Analysis
Jung lost this bout via knockout elbow. He was winning overall, scoring just seven strikes more than Yair by the fifth round in this non-title main event. Jung took the first round definitively but faded toward the fourth and fifth rounds, especially in the intensity of punches landed.
Sung also took nearly a minute of control time in the clench in the second round, and these four takedown attempts seemed to affect his gas tank for the remainder of the fight.
Volkanovski vs Ortega, Aldo Fight Analysis
Volkanovski was caught in three close submission attempts by Ortega, with all of them coming in the third and fourth rounds of the fight. After Volkanovski survived the fight, he beat Ortega in the fifth round 2:1 in strikes. Volk ends fights strong, especially against submission centered fighters after they expend their attempts.
Aldo versus Volkanovski was barely a fight, with a 3:1 or better striking ratio every round. Considering how easily Aldo controlled Jung, you have to think that Volkanovski is going to do something similar to Jung.
UFC 273 Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie Wrap Up
Betting predictions for Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie were developed using the basics in our UFC guide, so start there if you fail your predictions. Click here you’re looking for the full fight card instead of the main event.
Volkanovski is #3 pound pound for pound in the UFC and I see him continuing to climb until he hits his late 30s. It makes it easy on UFC predictions when we have such a talented, consistent champion.