PGA Tour Betting Picks: BMW Championship

Golfer Brooks Koepka Celebrating - BMW Championship Logo

The field is down to 70 golfers left in the PGA Tour Playoffs and this week’s tournament, the BMW Championship, is arguably the most important of the year.

But, wouldn’t next week’s PGA Tour Championship be the biggest?

Not exactly.

This year is the first year of the cascading starting strokes under par, effect, if you will.

I broke down the playoff system last week. Take a quick look here.

Speaking of last week, Brooks didn’t get the win we called for.

I was, of course, surprised to see him finish all the way back at 30th. He was 10 strokes off of the ice-cold killer/winner Patrick Reed, who is now ranked 2nd in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Patrick Cantlay hit for a top twenty bet (+125) for us and Justin Rose was close to a top-five as he finished 10th.

I suppose we got a little greedy there chasing (+450) odds.

Billy Horschel shot just 1 under on Sunday to finish 21st. Of course, we had him top twenty.

I’m not jumping off the Brooks Koepka train this week, though.

He will likely need a victory or top 5 finish to maintain his all-important #1 spot heading into next week’s Tour Championship so he can start the tourney at 10 under par.

If that happens, whew, good luck to the rest of the golfers vying for second place.

I would say maybe we should focus on some golfers on the bubble at or around the 30th spot in the standings but I don’t think it’s about motivation at this point in the season.

I think every playoff golfer is all in like ol’ Doyle Brunson.

It will undoubtedly be interesting.

Let’s go ahead, guys, and get to the odds, take a look at the course, and make some picks!

The Course

Medinah #3 is part of what was at one time constructed by the Shriners to be the greatest country club ever built.

Hence the #3. They also have a gun club, Olympic pool, and a bunch of other cool country club stuff that the well-to-do get to enjoy.

Tiger Woods, y’all!

As soon as we write him off, he’s right back into the mix. Currently sitting at 38th, he could definitely use a high placing to put himself into contention to defend his title at next week’s Tour Championship.

The PGA Championship was held here twice, in 1999 and again in 2006.

Woods won both.

It’s been a while, yes, but he’s on the radar.

Hairy weather is expected. It’s not going to be cold, of course, but there will be rain and moderate winds.

It’s a long course where par 5 scoring will play a major part in the success of the golfers.

I believe average driving distance will be an important statistic to look at and even more so greens in regulation.

Brooks Koepka to Finish Top Five: +200

This tournament has Big Poppa written all over it.

Yes, I know 2 to 1 odds aren’t diddly squat in the golf game but this is the world #1 we are talking about here.

14th in driving distance and 10th in GIR is a good start.

Oh, he’s the best golfer in the world.

He shines on the PGA Tour’s biggest stage.

Blah, blah. You guys know the spiel.

He definitely had an off week this past one but I’m on the Koepka train to pull into the station with a top-five finish.

My Pick
Koepka to Finish in the Top 5

Tiger Woods to Finish Top Twenty: +230

I spoke about Woods earlier, and I think he has a good shot this week.

He knows the courses in which he has the best opportunities to shine and this week is for sure one such opportunity.

He missed the cut last week. We can look at that as a positive or a negative. I think it’s a positive. He knew the course didn’t suit him as well as this week and at this stage in his career, he doesn’t exactly have 2-3 high-level performances in him, in consecutive weeks that is.

He missed the cut at the Open Championship but that was almost expected considering the cold wet conditions wreaking havoc on his many aches and pains he has earned being the best golfer of our time.

Before that, he was 21st, 9th, and 1st in his last four tournaments.

I think the old man has another run left in him. He did it last year.

While a top twenty finish might not be enough to get him into the top 30, Tiger will definitely be on the prowl.

My Pick
Woods to Finish in the Top 20

Jon Rahm To Finish Top Ten: +140

The Spaniard is the hottest golfer on the Tour.

There, I said it.

Somebody had to.

With all the talk about Brooks, while deserving because I think he’s the best, Rahm has dominated the Summer.

These are all of his finishes post Memorial Day in reverse order: 3rd, 7th, 11th, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

Need I say more?

He is top twenty on the year in driving distance which should prove all-important as I don’t think the singles hitters are going to thrive at Medinah #3.

My Pick
Rahm to Finish in the Top 10

In Conclusion

I’m just like you.

I can’t wait for next week and this new cascading starting strokes under par.

Curiosity has both ol’ George and myself.

Now, If we could just see what the man in the yellow hat has to say about things…

This is the week for the big hitters. I like Rory but he can be so helter-skelter.

Rahm is the model of consistency and Brooks is the best.

It’s hard to leave those two guys alone,

Throw Tiger Woods in there to sneak into the top twenty in hopes of making the cut for next week’s contention line and we have a solid spread.

Tune in, turn up the Proper Palmer, and enjoy the links.

We only have one more week before the PGA takes a September break.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.