Viva la golf en Old Mexico!
The PGA Tour continues its world tour to wrap up 2019 with a trip to Playa del Carmen for the playing of the Mayakoba Classic.
El Camaleon Golf Club will once again host the event in 2019 for the 13th year. This was the first PGA Tour event played in Mexico this century. What an absolutely lovely course this is!
It’s a par 71 and sub-7,000 yards. There are 3 par 5s and most will be reachable for most of the field. The front 9 holes head into the mangroves and the back 9 will be back out along the coast.
Now, this is not a difficult course by design. Much like a watered down Pebble Beach, the course difficulty relies heavily on the weather, particularly the wind.
The great Greg Norman is the architect behind this masterpiece. With a minimal amount of wind and no rain in the forecast for this weekend, El Camaleon is expected to play like a resort-level course.
Last year, Matt Kuchar won this thing at surprising odds of 60-1 and even finished up at 22 under par for the tournament. That number is definitely reachable again this year.
We will see.
BetOnline.ag has the odds for us this week
Before we get into our picks this week for the Mayakoba Golf Classic, let’s do a quick recap of last week’s action on the European Tour.
Last Week’s Turkish Airlines Open Betting Picks
A bit more confidence in our picks would have, for the second straight week, taken us a long way.
Two weeks ago, we picked 6 golfers to finish inside the top twenty. Both Cam Smith and Gary Woodland wrapped up the weekend tied for 3rd, Ryan Palmer snagged 12th, and 2 guys fell outside of a payout.
Almost the same thing happened this past weekend in Turkey when Kurt Kitayama and Victor Perez were both in a 6-way playoff at the end and each finished tied for second place.
I feel bad that we were on four top 5 bets in two tourneys but didn’t pull the trigger. At least we got them for the top twenty. That’s still better than nothing.
So, in our last two golf events, if you bet 100.00 on each of the ten golfers we picked, you would be up 270.00.
Argh, could be more but still happy with the result considering the wraparound season and the year nearing its end.
Different golfers have a variety of motivation factors including making the Masters or possibly the President’s Cup team before the end of the year.
Let’s continue our focus on staying in the green this week and make some picks!
I am in love with Russell Knox in this spot. I would love to take him to finish inside the top ten as he has done just that three times in his last three appearances at El Camaleon Golf Club.
He took last year off but from 2015-2017, Russell finished 2nd, 3rd, and 9th at the Mayakoba.
Russell is still on the positive side of 35-years-old having been born in Inverness, Scotland in 1985.
Those were his most productive years as a pro but as I said, you can’t expect him to have slowed too dramatically at only 34 years old.
Even if his club speed has declined slightly, that shouldn’t hurt him too much here in Playa Del Carmen where it’s all about accuracy, navigating the course, and making the most of your second shot.
Motivation will be there for the Scotsman this week as he could possibly fall out of the OWGR 100 if he begins to slide.
Russ is a coastal player through and through. He lives in nearby Florida and I expect him to be on point this weekend.
Knox shot a respectable 14 under a couple of weeks ago at the Bermuda Championship and rested up last week.
All signs point to Knox having a solid tourney.
The 27-year-old golfer from Argentina is another solid pick for the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
Just glancing back at his recent form doesn’t really do much to raise the proverbial eyebrow but upon further examination, he might be playing well in the right spots to really shine at El Camaleon.
His greens-in-regulation game is second only to Harris English of golfers in this week’s field over the past couple of months.
English isn’t a terrible bet either. He is a former winner here in 2013 but his recent performances in Playa del Carmen are not indicative of future success at this tournament.
37th, missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, and 68th since then make it hard to get on board with Harris.
Grillo, on the other hand, in the previous 3 years has finished 10th, 9th, and 15th at the Mayakoba.
Those are his only appearances too so why not take him for a top 20 at (+175)?
The course history is undoubtedly there for the Missouri-native.
In his last 4 appearances at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, Brice has registered 6th, 7th, 25th, and 5th place finishes, in that order.
I think the reason his odds are so long is that he is coming off of a month-long break and may be a bit rusty.
We have to travel back in time to early August to find his last top twenty finish but that was 6th place behind An, Kim, Viktor Hovland, and Webb Simpson at the Wyndham Championship.
His form isn’t great lately but maybe the month break will be more helpful than of detriment to the 36-year-old man.
He just seems to come alive in Mexico and with more than 3 to 1 odds to do something he’s done 3 out of his last four opportunities is something we can’t resist.
There you have it, guys. I stuck with the top twenty’s again this week just because.
Even though it may seem a little illogical, I am slightly superstitious.
We had 4 top twenty bets in our last two events finish top 3 so my first thought was “Oh, I better make my next picks top 5 or 10 to maximize our profit.”
That’s just about the type of thinking that I want to suppress in my own mind and discourage for our readers.
I want to stay in the green and by the new year and the Tournament of Champions, the fog should be lifted on the PGA Tour and golfers will be settled in.
You never know which of the waistline warriors will be more focused on a head start to Turkey Day or want to sacrifice now for the all-important momentum by January 1st.
I’ve never been one for New Year’s Resolutions. Tomorrow is nearly a bad word.
If just one out of three hits, then we almost broke even.
Two or even three make it…then we are the ones looking ahead to a holiday except it’ll be our kid’s Christmas.
Tune in, turn up your Arny’s, and bet hard ladies and gentlemen!