Last week at the OMEGA European Masters, Swede Sebastion Soderberg gutted out a win over recent FedEx Cup Champion Rory McIlroy to capture his first-ever win on the European Tour.
The backdrop was as good as it gets as the tournament was played at a ski resort in the Swiss Alps.
Very easy on the eyes is an understatement.
The finish, though, was not at all easy on the nerves of golfers, fans, and bettors involved as we witnessed yet another playoff finish at the Euro Masters.
It was the fourth year in a row, players were tied after 72 holes and the sixth year out of seven as well.
That brings me to our picks.
Well, I had Lucas Bjerregaard to snag a top twenty finish at (+200) but he, unfortunately, fell a couple of strokes short after a strong start.
Tommy Fleetwood picked up the slack for us with a top ten finish (-165).
We punted two-time runner-up Scott Hend to creep into the top twenty for an 8 to 1 payout but he didn’t even make the cut.
Matthew Fitzpatrick, who has dominated this tournament in the past 5 years, made the cut but didn’t come close to the top five we called for (+185).
Elsewhere, we bid on a parlay for Fitzpatrick and a few others to make the cut but a couple fell short. We missed Troy Merritt to be the top American performer. He is expected to bounce back this week, though.
I had to bet on the prop of 3 or more golfers in a playoff after 72 because of the recent history and it hit big as 5 golfers were tied at 14 under par at the end of regulation if you will.
This was good for (+1200)! I don’t expect that you laid the same amount of units on this one as some of the others but I hope we at least broke even.
On to this week’s Porsche European Open from Northern Germany near Hamburg for some more betting fun!
This tournament has been hosted by several golf courses located in a few different countries including the UK, Ireland, and now Deutschland.
Among the European stars competing in this week’s field, several American elites make their return after a couple of weeks of rest post-PGA Tour Championship.
The FedEx Cup runner-up Xander Schauffele is coming off of a tremendous finish to the season in America and will be the favorite at 6 to 1. While I am a big fan of his, I don’t like those odds at all as you might imagine.
Accompanying him on the trip across the pond are Matt Kuchar and Northern Trust winner Patrick Reed.
The latter had a good chance to win this tournament heading into the final round last year but finished 4 over par for the round and 4 strokes off the winner, Richard McEvoy.
BetOnline has the juice this week.
Let’s get a betting spread together!
Alexander Levy to Finish Top Twenty: +150
Levy is coming into the European Open this week slightly under the radar after missing the cut last week in Switzerland.
The Frenchman has 5 wins in his career on the European Tour at the age of 29.
The reason I like him here is that he absolutely smashes golf courses in Germany.
Alexander has a phenomenal course history here in particular. In the two years this tournament has been held at the Green Eagle North Course, Alex finished 13th in 2017 and lost out in a playoff to Jordan Smith in 2018.
He won this tournament in 2016, although it was a different course.
As I said, lately he’s not completely in terrible form. He nabbed a 5th place finish a couple of weeks ago at the Scandanavian Invitational and was 18th seven days prior at the Czech Masters.
Maybe getting last weekend off helped him rest his bones and prepare his mind for a course more suited to his skills.
The weather should favor his play as well. He’s very aggressive and a fairly long hitter also.
With rain in the forecast every day, the golfers who are shorter off the tee won’t be getting that favorable bounce. In addition to that, the longer hitters with less accuracy shouldn’t worry too much about their drives bouncing off the fairway into the rough.
Winning here will take some risk and we should probably favor the bold with our fortune.
Matthias Schwab to Finish Top Twenty: +120
Now this man is in good form!
Matthias is a cool name too. No offense to any Matthew’s out there.
He kicked off the European Masters in Switzerland last week with a first-round 63. Of course, he didn’t get the W but he hung tough and finished 8th just two off of the leaders.
In his previous outing, Schwab wrapped things up at the Czech Masters in 5th.
Last year at this tournament, he finished 3 off the lead after a +3 on Sunday. This was good enough for 7th alongside Paul Casey.
I like the plus money here on Matt to continue his fine play and possibly seek redemption from the 4th-round choke in 2018.
Matthew Southgate to Finish Top Twenty: +400
And here’s Matthew. Sorry, bud. Your last name has a nice redcoat ring to it, though.
I like the value here.
8th in driving accuracy on the European Tour and 15th overall in shots gained off the tee, Matthew has what it takes to succeed here.
There is no course history so at least we can’t hold that against him.
He does struggle with the flat stick but the greens in Germany are forecasted to be rather favorable.
Greens in regulation is almost always important heading into any tournament and it’s especially true here with straightforward putting strategy.
He ranks 24th in approach and an excellent 9th in GIR.
Throw Matty a few pounds.
Word is, the elite Americans could just be making an appearance for a check and essentially going through the motions at this week’s Porsche European Open from Germany.
While I’m potentially calling bs here, their betting odds aren’t really worth the risk even if we knew they were bringing their respective A-games.
Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, and Matt Kuchar all seem like stand up gentlemen. Well, maybe not Kuch if you ask his caddy but I guess we are past that.
A top twenty for the X-man is going to cost you 3 points to the dollar and that’s just too expensive for me.
He ended the 2018-2019 PGA Tour season tremendously. I imagine he has since decompressed and this week will be a warmup at best.
As for our picks, I like the course history for the first two. Both are in fairly decent form, at least, and their skills match up with the course well.
Our last pick, Southgate, has excellent value at 4 to 1 odds on just a top twenty finish.
His season statistics are solid and he has a top ten finish in the past couple of tournaments.
Get your picks in early this week, put the football on DVR, and enjoy some of the action from Germany.