I never thought I would miss golf so much!
It has been a while since we have seen a PGA Tour event. The last tournament played was the Arnold Palmer at Bay Hill and that wrapped up on March 8th.
The UK’s Tyrell Hatton got the victory at just 4 under par for the tournament under quite difficult conditions. Marc Leishman, Sungjae Im, and Bryson DeChambeau were the only golfers to finish their four rounds of golf under par.
Former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year, Sungjae Im, won the previous week at the Honda Classic. So, you could say he is in better form than anyone else. That’s a joke.
Fast forward to nearly 100 days later and here we are at Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Colonial is a classic tree-lined golf course that rewards accuracy. There are plenty of doglegs as well so players who can bend their shots will have an advantage.
Hogan’s Alley is down in Fort Worth, Texas, and is steeped in tradition as the great Ben Hogan won here 5 times and lived close by.
The course is small. The greens are small. The fairways are tight. This is a ball striker’s course and drives will need to be skilled for bending tee shots.
Our last 3 PGA Tour picks came back in late February. It was one top ten bet and two top twenty’s but all three hit for us.
Over the break when there was next to nothing going on in the sporting world, there were several low-level pro golf tours still operating. We came out ahead picking matchup bets on the Cactus and Outlaw Tours and even picked a (+1000) tournament winner in Thailand’s KK Limbhasut.
Picking a winner this week is going to prove much more difficult, though.
The field at the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge is thicker than a Snicker with Rory, Rahm, JT, Webb, and Brooks at the top of the betting board. There are so many talented golfers to choose from. Kevin Na, who won this tournament last season is 50 to 1 to win it this time around.
Let’s mostly stick to the top twenty betting odds. 3 months of inactivity is unprecedented on the PGA Tour so there are plenty of unknowns going into this weekend’s tournament.
Expect calm weather with no rain and minimal wind with temperatures climbing into the high 90s.
The online sportsbook BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us, guys, so let’s dive in!
Webb Simpson: +110
If you’re looking for a short course specialist, look no further. Webb Simpson could be our guy. He also loves Bentgrass green surfaces and as you may have guessed, that’s what we’re rolling with this weekend at Colonial.
Getting him at plus money here for a top twenty is beautiful. I know the field of golfers is very thick but Simpson’s only true weakness is his driving distance where he ranks 66th which still isn’t terrible.
1st in birdies and 2nd in scoring average in 2020 are solid numbers to take into the CSC this week. The birdies should be available with the fair weather and the North Carolina native isn’t worried about the 100 degree heat.
At just 34 years old, Webb may be peaking this year and it may be his best chance yet at becoming a FedEx Cup Champion.
He is 16th tee-to-green, 7th in approach, and 2nd in putting average this year. Webb has finishes of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd this season already, and remember there is a 90-day break built in there.
Simpson also has 7th and 10th place finishes this year and his only other tournament was a rough showing at WGC Mexico where he finished 61st. So, he has finished inside the top ten in 5 of 6 tournaments played this season.
We are getting plus money on a golfer who has solid course history, 2 top fives in his previous 3 starts. He has been one of the top 3 golfers on the PGA Tour in the 2019-2020 season.
Course fit is there as well with him being very accurate, solid ball-striking, and outstanding putting. I think Webb checks off all of the boxes for us this week.
Jordan Spieth Top 20: +200
I’m always nervous when picking Jordan. After one of the fastest starts to a golf career we have ever seen, Jordan Spieth has returned to human-status and stayed there.
He has such a rise that I think a dip in performance wasn’t a matter of if but when it was going to happen. He won Rookie of the Year for the PGA Tour in 2013 then was voted Golfer of the Year in 2015 when he won the FedEx Cup.
Jordan won not only the US Open that year but The Masters as well. Spieth won 5 tournaments over the next two years including the Open Championship in 2017. That was his last victory, though…
It is hard to believe that Jordan Spieth is still 26-years-old. He has accomplished so much to this point and I don’t think we have seen the very best of Spieth.
It’s hard for us to gauge how strongly and when he may return to form but the Charles Schwab Challenge is a pretty good bet. This is the Dallas native’s home course!
He finished 7th at Colonial in his first official pro tournament here in 2013. He followed that up with a 14th place finish and has played the event every year since. The next three years were incredible! 1st, 2nd, and 1st!
- 2018 was Jordan’s worst year of his career when he placed 32nd at the CSC. This was at a time when he was barely making cuts.
- In 2019, Jordan rebounded and finished 8th. 7 starts, 6 top twenty finishes, 5 top tens, and 3 top two’s!
We are getting him at 2 to 1 to do something he has done 86% of the time. There may be safer plays because I know it’s Jordan Spieth but nobody has course history like this. Even Rahm and Rose have missed cuts in fewer appearances.
Ryan Palmer Top 20: +300
We mentioned Jordan Spieth is a local. Well, so is 43-year-old Ryan Palmer.
We know the old man will be rested and he has more top 6 finishes here than any other golfer in the field with 4. He was 6th here last year. His “current form” isn’t terrible either with four top 21 finishes in his previous 6 starts.
Ryan has definitely had some incredible days at Colonial and there have been a couple of tournaments where he missed the cut. He has played this course competitively every year for over a decade, though.
He lives here and I imagine he has found his way to the links at least a few times during this lockdown.
It’s a bit of a longshot but with some of the best course history of any golfer in the field, I think Ryan warrants a top twenty pick.
I wonder how many of those we will hear this week down in Fort Worth, TX at the Colonial Golf Course.
It is a tightly tree-lined course that lends itself to bendable dog legs and rewards accuracy as much as any set of links in the country. This is not a bomber’s paradise.
Bermudagrass putting specialists like Webb Simpson who can strike the ball cleanly while remaining accurate will be golfers to watch for at this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
Not many golfers have the course history of locals Jordan Spieth and to a lesser degree, Ryan Palmer.
With current form firmly out the window, we have course history along with course fit to compare with the value of the betting lines provided.
All three of our picks today to finish inside the top twenty golfers by end of play on Sunday have the history and fit to play well here more often than not.
We got some great lines on all three guys. Let’s shoot for 3/3 but 2 of them will give us a more than a positive day. Get your bets in now directly from this article and enjoy some golfing action this weekend if you have the time.