We are back with you for another week of golfing action on the PGA Tour. The regular season has just begun and this is our fourth tournament of the “year”.
After the Tour Championship, we had the Safeway Open the very next week which turned out to be a weak show because most golfers were gearing up for the US Open the following week.
Last week was the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship. I wanted to stay away from that one because, under the circumstances, it was really a wild guess on a winner.
The Tallahassee native, Hudson Swafford, took the win. I was going to bet the kid, Zalatoris, last week for a top twenty but would probably have fallen short on my other pick or two so glad we stayed away.
Notable finishers were Luke List in 8th who tied with youngster Will Zalatoris as well as Pat Perez and Henrik Stenson who both wrapped things up on Sunday in 21st.
This week at the Sanderson Farms Championship from Jackson, Mississippi, we have a better-looking field of golfing talent but not by much.
- Sungjae Im sits near the top of the betting board even though he didn’t have the best finish to his 2019-2020 season.
- Scottie Scheffler is a popular pick this week and for good reason. His betting odds of (+900) pay the least of anyone in the entire field.
- Sam Burns has been our guy as of late winning twice for us in the past month. He is aggressive and prefers our putting surface this week, Bermudagrass, better than any other by a mile.
Last year it was the Bogota-born Sebastian Munoz who was able to defeat the aforementioned Sungjae Im in a playoff to win the tournament.
I think the top of the leaderboard is a good place to start this week. Don’t sweat the prices and don’t complicate it.
The online sportsbook BetOnline has said prices for us as they always do. Let’s get to our golf betting picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Sam Burns Top 20: +150
The 24-year-old LSU Tiger from Shreveport, Sam Burns, has had a decent finish and start to our two seasons we’re in the middle of.
13th at the Wyndham and 7th at the Safeway a few weeks ago were both top 20 winning plays for us. I liked what I saw from Sam Burns back at the Workday Charity Open in early July.
His prices are still pretty good as he does show some inconsistencies but that is due to his style of play. He is very aggressive and if the elements aren’t treating him right or course is simply kicking his butt, Sam has the potential to fall far behind.
Talent-wise, he is probably top 5 in this field.
I can’t leave the guy alone in this spot. He finished 3rd here a couple of years ago and the dry fast fairways and green complexes got to him last year.
The weather this week looks to be calm but there has been a shrimp boat full of rain that has poured in on the Bayou over the past couple of weeks so I think the course should reward those who get after it.
Cameron Champ, who is still very green and well known for his outrageous power off the tee, won here in 2018-when Burns played great. I think the bomb and gouge might work pretty well this week.
Sam Burns, even though he is ranked 167th in the world right now officially, finished last season ranked 8th in driving distance, 16th in shots gained off the tee, and 30th in overall putting average.
His approach shots are bad, though, and his shots around the green particularly sand save percentage are definitely below average.
Sam is still lacking balance in his golf game and that’s why we are going to face him on courses that either play to his weaknesses or require overall proficiency.
This isn’t one of those courses, though, and it should play slow enough on the fairways that Sam keeps it between the navigational beacons more often than not.
I could see Sam winning this tournament for sure. You can get him at 22 to 1. I don’t think that is a bad price at all but there are a few other golfers whose games are designed for this week’s course.
We will take him to finish inside the top 20 at (+150). I love this price here.
Pick: Burns Top 20
Scottie Scheffler Top 10: +125
I know what you’re thinking. Believe me. I’m thinking the same thing. (+125) for a top 10? Really?
Another 24-year-old, Scottie Scheffler is playing better golf than anyone in the field. I don’t think there is a doubt about that.
He ranked 10th in both shots gained off the tee and shots gained tee to green last season. 15th in shots gained total all year and a birdie beast ranking 7th in that category.
The Texan is a big boy at 6’3 220. I can see him fully sending some drives straight down the fairway.
He has better driving accuracy than Burns but Scottie Scheffler struggles with the flat stick in his hands ranking 117th in overall putting average for the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season. That is my only worry, though, and his current form should make up for that.
This is Scottie’s first tournament of the new season.
We last saw him at the Tour Championship where he was outplayed by just two men, the tournament and season winner Dustin Johnson and 72-hole winner, Xander Schauffele.
20th the week prior at the BMW Championships and 4th at the other playoff event, The Northern Trust. 4th at the PGA Championship a week before that.
The man is the man right now.
Pick: Scheffler Top 10
Carlos Ortiz Top 20: +300
I had to research the guy, not gonna lie.
Carlos has not been in the best form as of late on the PGA Tour but the Guadalajara native loves him some Jackson, Mississippi golf courses, this one in particular.
He has two appearances here in 2018 and last year in 2019 and he finished 3rd and 4th in those starts, respectively.
It isn’t the strongest field and as much as I like my guys at the top to play well, I had to throw this guy in there.
Pick: Ortiz Top 20
Will Zalatoris Top 5: +450
Again, another guy you may not have heard of, Will Zalatoris has been playing on the Korn Ferry Tour.
The San Francisco born and Wake Forest educated Zalatoris has a chance to secure a spot on the PGA Tour as a sponsor’s exemption for this year. This would obviously be huge for the 24-year-old.
He was just playing in the Evans Scholars Invitational, whatever that is, and a week later, he locks up 6th place at the US Open!
He shot 1 over par for the final round which was only bested by 2 other golfers who shot even for the day.
Will was at it again the following week down in the Dominican Republic where he again crushed the final round shooting 7 under which was the best of the day. Will finished 8th for the tournament.
He needs 5th or better this week for that spot on the Tour and it looks like this kid steps up when the pressure is on evidenced by him being better on Sunday than anyone on Tour over the past couple of tourneys.
Let’s go, young man!
Pick: Zalatoris Top 5
I like sniping tournaments like this one.
It isn’t a major where you get decent prices on some of your favorite golfers but it’s for good reason because the field is so rich with talent, parody prevails.
The talent field isn’t so depleted either that we are forced to make our best plays on golfers we don’t know very much about.
- I know Sam Burns. His game is perfect for this course and he is playing at a high level.
- I know Scottie Scheffler. The man is very underrated and his finishes of 5th, 20th, 4th, and 4th at the PGA Championship and 3 playoff events is hard to match.
- Will Zalatoris is a really good storyline for this weekend’s event and why not throw a little cash on the kid to get his card?
- The Mexican, Ortiz, is the old man here at 29 years of age but I love his love for this tournament finishing 3rd and 4th in his only two outings at Sanderson Farms.
Get your bets in now, team, and let’s hope these young guns can shoot ‘em low.