PGA Tour Betting Picks: US Open

US Open Winged Foot 2020

After a furious finish to the 2019-2020 season, the PGA Tour refuses to allow viewers and bettors the opportunity to forget about golf in the Fall like normal.

It is usually the slowest time of the year for professional golf.

Pair that with the kickoff of the NFL regular season along with the NHL, NBA, and MLB playoffs, and yeah, I can see how one could forget about golf for a little while.

Not us, though!

We have had a decent run picking golf the past couple of months.

It wasn’t pretty the first month or so post-lockdown betting on golf but that’s okay.

We are learning every time.

Last week was actually the first tournament of the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season.

The Safeway Open, off the heels of the Tour Championship, and of course, preceding the US Open was unsurprisingly skipped by the majority of the best golfers in the world.

I don’t mind that so much from a betting perspective and have been doing well sniping top 10s and 20 plays on events like this with a weak field.

We went after Si Woo Kim after he got a big (+400) win for us back at the Wyndham Championship a month ago.

He really had an up and down, definitely no pun intended, tournament.

His round scores for the tourney go as follows:

  • 70
  • 65
  • 66
  • 77

I thought we had a chance to sneak back into the top twenty for that (+120) payout but a sucky Sunday from the South Korean shut the door on our potential for victory.

We still came out of the weekend with a profit, though, as the hard charging Sam Burns hung around the top 5 for the duration of the tournament slipping to 7th when she shot just 2 under for the final round.

We had him for a top 20 at (+240), though, so I was just fine with him not contending for the win.

This week’s field of talent is quite a bit thicker, though, so we will likely be targeting much higher level golfers at the US Open.

Notoriously difficult no matter the hosting course, the US Open is usually won by golfers who don’t make a lot of mistakes but more importantly are mentally strong.

BetOnline.AG leads the way once again and has the goods for us this week.

Let’s get to the PGA Tour betting odds and predictions for the US Open.

Xander Schauffele

I really like the X-Man here. He’s at +1400 to win.

He is playing his best golf of the year as of late and his skill set is perfectly suited for Winged Foot.

Let’s talk about the course for a second.

Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York is considered to be one of the most difficult golf courses to hold a US Open in the country.

The fairways are 19-23 yards wide.

That’s a tunnel, essentially, so…good luck.

There is only a few feet of rough before you get to the nightmarish tall grass.

The greens look like they laid some Poa Annua on top of a mini skate park with a slew of 4-year-old-constructed sand castles underneath.

The last time they held the US Open here was in 2006.

Geoff Ogilvy won by shooting 5 OVER par!

The winning score of a tournament slam packed with the best golfers in the world and nobody even came close to breaking par for the tourney.

You could have hit a top twenty bet on a guy who shot 12 over par…

This makes me think Dustin Johnson, as well as he is playing, will struggle at Winged Foot.

He couldn’t hit a fairway to save his life but it didn’t matter at all.

Employing the same or similar strategy at the US Open this week is in all likelihood, a t-totally terrible idea.

If you’re the best in the world, though, you can adjust your sails as needed.

Dustin Johnson, even though he won the Tour Championship, was outplayed in the tournament by Xander Schauffele.

The X-Man actually outplayed the entire field.

I almost picked him to complete that task but hey, we hit on DJ at (+180) to get the win overall with his starting strokes at minus 10.

The Californian Schauffele’s golf game peaks with the level of the tournament he’s playing.

You can look back at his career and tell that like his fellow 20 something Brooks Koepka, Xander is the type to shine under the lights, if golf was played at night.

It’s not, though, but he shines in the sun too.

Top 10 finishes at each of the four major events on the PGA Tour from 2018-2020 is pretty darn impressive.

He was top 3 in all but the PGA Championship that was just played last month.

I worry about his approach shots getting to an advantageous while safe position on the greens.

That has really been his only struggle recently as his putting has been better than ever and is still a top five player off the tee.

He seems to play with a fairly level head also and that will serve him well in a place like Winged Foot where aggressive bombers off the tee go to die.

If he does get into trouble around the green, which I think everyone will at some point, I have confidence that Xander will recover well as nobody has been a better scrambler over the Summer than Schauffele.

The Bet
Xander Schauffele Top 10
+160

Kevin Kisner

Kis is quietly playing some quality golf as of late.

I honestly didn’t even notice but listen to his recent work.

After missing 4 cuts in 2020, the Aiken, South Carolina native Kisner went on quite a run.

3rd at the Rocket Mortgage, 25th at St Jude, 19th at the PGA Championship, 3rd at the Wyndham, 4th at the Northern Trust, 25th at the BMW, and 23rd at last week’s Tour Championship and that’s with 10 golfers playing with handicaps.

Nobody has been better with the flat stick than Kis lately.

He was 33rd in driving accuracy over the course of the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season that just ended.

I know that stat will be important.

His game fits pretty well with this course.

He has been playing at a very high level over the past couple of months.

I like the number as well.

3 to 1?

I’ll take it.

The Bet
Kevin Kisner Top Twenty
+300

Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Boy!

Kinda like Xander Schauffele likes to come alive in the big moments, Tommy Fleetwood plays up to the level of the course.

And we know this course is one of the most difficult on planet Earth.

Fleetwood is great off the tee ranking 24th in shots gained in 2020.

He is top 25 in shots gained putting as well. He has issues with his approach play kinda like Xander but also scrambles at a high level like him too.

He is particularly a long hitter but sensible at the same time ranking 82nd in driving accuracy.

That isn’t that bad really, especially when you consider that many courses on the PGA Tour reward recklessly bombing the golf ball off the tee.

Make a mess and clean it up works better for some golfers on certain courses than conservatively playing it safe.

What I admire about Tommy is that he can shift his style of play as needed.

Fleetwood did play last week but it wasn’t at the Safeway Open here in the States.

He rocked out at the Portugal Masters finishing in 3rd place.

The betting line isn’t bad. I would have liked to have seen 2 to 1 or better for a top 20 but Tommy seems to embrace the suck as well as anyone, and it appears that Winged Foot can really suck sometimes.

The Bet
Fleetwood Top Twenty
+150

In Conclusion

The US Open looks like a lot of fun, man.

I don’t think you will hear many hardcore fans complaining about the ease of play.

5 over par was the previous winning score here at a US Open held at Winged Foot.

Sergio Garcia shot 16 under over Friday and Saturday and just missed the cut that year.

Patience is virtuous as you know and I picked some golfers I don’t believe are likely to lose their respective cools this weekend.

We have seen Jon Rahm get pretty heated at times kinda like the aforementioned Sergio.

I don’t want to say it’s the Spanish bloodbath…that’s almost too cliche.

I wouldn’t count out Dustin Johnson because his strategy of bombing off the tee and missing half of the fairways was working for him so he kept doing it.

That doesn’t mean he will employ the same strategy at Winged Foot, a golf course with entirely different dimensions.

Xander Schauffele is a major killer!

He had the best 72-hole score at the Tour Championship less than two weeks ago.

I think he will continue playing well this week.

Kevin Kisner is a putting specialist with outstanding accuracy from the tee box.

I like his number at 3 to 1 for a top twenty as well, especially considering how well he has been playing as the Summer winds to a close.

Finally, we went with Brit Tommy Fleetwood.

He seems to play his best golf on the world’s hardest courses so why not take a shot at him this week?

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.