PGA Tour Betting Picks: WGC Mexico Championship

Golf Player Dustin Johnson - WGC Mexico Championship Logo

It’s time for the first WGC event of the year and this marks the fourth of seven visits to Club de Golf Chapultepec for the world’s best golfers.

The field will again be thick this year minus a few stars including Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, and Jason Day.

We will get to see the new world number one ranked golfer, Rory McIlroy in action along with Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas whose betting odds are all at 10-1 or less.

We will be at a significant altitude near Mexico City, Mexico. I know golf isn’t exactly cage fighting but there’s something about the air down there that exhausts those that attempt to push themselves.

I don’t think the elevation will affect these guys’ cardio too much but it’s not like the game of golf provides them with a solid aerobic base either.

What the 7,000 feet of elevation brings to the game of golf is more air. Balls should fly 10-20% farther in the thin air than they would at somewhere like Pebble Beach which is, of course, at sea level.

The weather is expected to be near perfect. So, that’s one thing we shouldn’t have to consider.

I want to try and pick some golfers with larger payouts this week but we can’t ignore the top guys like DJ and Rory who finished first and second at last year’s event.

We have had a rough couple of weeks picking golfers. I’m sorry for that. I got a little greedy going for winners a couple of weeks ago instead of being my normal conservative self and sticking with the top 20 bets.

Last week at the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles, we tried to hit DJ top five and he was top ten. Then we went for Rahm top ten and he was 11th. Their odds didn’t pay that well for top 20s but we still would have at least got paid.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us this week. Let’s get to the betting odds and predictions for the WGC Mexico Championship.

Dustin Johnson

Okay, I know what I just said. I was going to try and go with the top twenty bets and I still may for a couple of mid-tier golfers but DJ has two wins in three appearances here.

I’m going with DJ no matter what. I have to figure out, though, at what price and finishing position? He is (-400) for a top twenty! Rory is (-550)! Madness. Maybe parlaying these two numbers wouldn’t be a bad idea if you please.

The top ten odds for DJ are (-175). That’s just not enough payout for me. I don’t believe the same thing that happened last week will go down in Old Mexico.

He is the best Poa Annua putter in the past 20 years. He led the field in putting last week at Riviera. Dustin seems to adapt his game better than most by not overshooting when playing at elevation.

I think 2020 is going to be a big year for Johnson. Heck, it’s already been pretty solid.

Top ten finishes at Riviera and the Tournament of Champions in Maui along with a runner-up in Saudi Arabia has the 6’4” South Carolina-native playing with confidence.

Did I mention he has two victories here in just three tries? The meat in that 2017 and 2019 sandwich was a 7th place finish in ‘18.

DJ is a definite pick this week.

The Bet
Johnson Top 5
+175

Brandt Snedeker

From one southern boy to the next, Snedeker doesn’t nearly have the current form of the aforementioned DJ but his course fit is on par, if you will.

The 39-year-old Nashville-native has just one appearance at this course and he finished a respectable 7th improving his score as the tournament progressed.

Okay, so hear me out. Yes, he has missed the cut in his previous two tournaments. Normally, that’s a deal-breaker for me even for a top twenty but these odds are just too sweet.

Nearly 2-1 just for a top twenty for a guy who has played well here and fits very nicely with the design and surfaces? I think I’ll take it.

I guess his form isn’t that atrocious right now. He finished 12th at the Sony Open to kick off 2020 and tied for 3rd with Rory behind Jon Rahm and Marc Leishman at the Farmers.

Take into account the two weeks off since the last outing and we can safely assume his nearly 40-year-old body is well-rested.

I did a bit of research and I couldn’t find anything about a potential injury with the Music City star.

His flat stick is tapping the golf ball beautifully as of late and with some thin air to aid in his approach, the Vanderbilt alum should hopefully cruise to a top twenty finish.

The Bet
Snedeker Top 20
+185

Sergio Garcia

Anytime you can get plus money on a top twenty bet with a guy who has played a tournament so well, you have to take it, right?

In Serg’s three appearances south of the border, his play has improved each time. 12th, 7th, and 6th.

The Spaniard hasn’t been playing too awfully bad lately either with two top ten finishes in his last four starts.

One of those was a 6th place finish in Saudi where DJ was second. I think both vets will show out this weekend.

The Bet
Garcia Top 20
+135

In Conclusion

February is really flying by, right?

January seemed like it would never end and then all of a sudden, we had to buy flowers and chocolates just for, well, love…

The PGA Tour is rolling right along as well with a trip down south nearby Mexico City, Mexico at Club de Golf Chapultepec for the 4th installment of the WGC Mexico Championship.

  • Dustin Johnson has won two of the three and will be the defending champ this weekend.
  • Phil Mickelson, who won’t be in the field, took Justin Thomas to overtime and beat him in 2018.
  • JT will be there and I expect solid play from him.

Our picks of Dustin Johnson and Brandt Snedeker I think will both hit and it would be very nice as well if Sergio Garcia can significantly improve upon his 37th place finish at Riviera last week.

Baseball hasn’t started yet, the NBA is just making their way towards turn 3 of the regular season, so don’t tell me you don’t have time for golf.

It’s not even warm outside!

The XFL is a lot of fun but the unders have hit in 6 out of the 8 games so far this season, so it’s not likely you’ll miss a score if you flip back and forth between the two events.

Get those bets in now and let’s get paid this week!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.